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Emotions, Trust, and Perceived Risk: Affective and Cognitive Routes to Flood Preparedness Behavior

机译：情绪，信任和可感知的风险：防洪行为的情感和认知途径

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Despite the prognoses of the effects of global warming (e.g., rising sea levels, increasing river discharges), few international studies have addressed how flood preparedness should be stimulated among private citizens. This article aims to predict Dutch citizens' flood preparedness intentions by testing a path model, including previous flood hazard experiences, trust in public flood protection, and flood risk perceptions (both affective and cognitive components). Data were collected through questionnaire surveys in two coastal communities (n = 169, n = 244) and in one river area community (n = 658). Causal relations were tested by means of structural equation modeling (SEM). Overall, the results indicate that both cognitive and affective mechanisms influence citizens' preparedness intentions. First, a higher level of trust reduces citizens' perceptions of flood likelihood, which in turn hampers their flood preparedness intentions (cognitive route). Second, trust also lessens the amount of dread evoked by flood risk, which in turn impedes flood preparedness intentions (affective route). Moreover, the affective route showed that levels of dread were especially influenced by citizens' negative and positive emotions related to their previous flood hazard experiences. Negative emotions most often reflected fear and powerlessness, while positive emotions most frequently reflected feelings of solidarity. The results are consistent with the affect heuristic and the historical context of Dutch flood risk management. The great challenge for flood risk management is the accommodation of both cognitive and affective mechanisms in risk communications, especially when most people lack an emotional basis stemming from previous flood hazard events.
机译：尽管预言了全球变暖的影响（例如，海平面上升，河流排放量增加），但很少有国际研究探讨应如何激发私人公民的防洪工作。本文旨在通过测试路径模型来预测荷兰公民的洪水准备意向，包括先前的洪水灾害经验，对公共洪水保护的信任以及洪水风险感知（情感和认知组成部分）。通过问卷调查收集了两个沿海社区（n = 169，n = 244）和一个河流地区社区（n = 658）的数据。通过结构方程模型（SEM）检验因果关系。总体而言，结果表明，认知和情感机制均会影响公民的准备意愿。首先，较高的信任度会降低公民对洪灾可能性的认识，从而阻碍他们的洪灾准备意图（认知路线）。其次，信任还减少了洪水风险引起的恐惧程度，这反过来又阻碍了洪水的防范意图（有效路线）。此外，情感路线表明，恐惧程度尤其受到与他们先前洪水灾害经历有关的负面和正面情绪的影响。负面情绪最常反映出恐惧和无能为力，而正面情绪最常反映出团结的感觉。结果与荷兰洪水风险管理的影响启发式方法和历史背景是一致的。洪水风险管理面临的最大挑战是如何在风险沟通中兼顾认知和情感机制，尤其是当大多数人缺乏源于先前洪水灾害事件的情感基础时。

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