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General Probability-Time Tradeoff and Intertemporal Risk-Value Model

机译:一般概率-时间权衡和跨期风险-价值模型

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摘要

This article proposes an intertemporal risk-value (IRV) model that integrates probability-time tradeoff, time-value tradeoff, and risk-value tradeoff into one unified framework. We obtain a general probability-time tradeoff, which yields a formal representation form to reflect the psychological distance of a decisionmaker in evaluating a temporal lottery. This intuition of probability-time tradeoff is supported by robust empirical findings as well as by psychological theory. Through an explicit formalization of probability-time tradeoff, an IRV model taking into account three fundamental dimensions, namely, value, probability, and time, is established. The object of evaluation in our framework is a complex lottery. We also give some insights into the structure of the IRV model using a wildcatter problem.
机译:本文提出了一种跨期风险价值(IRV)模型,该模型将概率-时间权衡,时间-价值权衡和风险-价值权衡整合到一个统一的框架中。我们获得了一般的概率-时间权衡,这产生了一个正式的表示形式,以反映决策者在评估临时彩票时的心理距离。可靠的经验发现以及心理学理论都支持了这种概率-时间折衷的直觉。通过对概率-时间折衷的明确形式化,建立了一个IRV模型,该模型考虑了三个基本维度,即价值,概率和时间。我们框架中的评估对象是复杂的彩票。我们还使用通配符问题对IRV模型的结构进行了一些分析。

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