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Use Of Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning In Maritime Security Assessment

机译：模糊证据推理在海上安全评估中的应用

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摘要

Over the last few years, there has been a growing international recognition that the security performance of the maritime industry needs to be reviewed on an urgent basis. A large number of optional maritime security control measures have been proposed through various regulations and publications in the post-9/11 era. There is a strong need for a sound and generic methodology, which is capable of taking into account multiple selection criteria such as the cost effectiveness of the measures based on reasonable security assessment. The use of traditional risk assessment and decision-making approaches to deal with potential terrorism threats in a maritime security area reveals two major challenges. They are lack of capability of analyzing security in situations of high-level uncertainty and lack of capability of processing diverse data in a utility form suitable as input to a risk inference mechanism. To deal with such difficulties, this article proposes a subjective security-based assessment and management framework using fuzzy evidential reasoning (ER) approaches. Consequently, the framework can be used to assemble and process subjective risk assessment information on different aspects of a maritime transport system from multiple experts in a systematic way. Outputs of this model can also provide decisionmakers with a transparent tool to evaluate maritime security policy options for a specific scenario in a cost-effective manner.
机译：在过去的几年中，国际上越来越认识到需要紧急审查海运业的安全性能。在9/11后时代，通过各种法规和出版物提出了许多可选的海上安全控制措施。迫切需要一种合理且通用的方法，该方法能够考虑多种选择标准，例如基于合理安全评估的措施的成本效益。使用传统的风险评估和决策方法来应对海上安全领域中潜在的恐怖主义威胁显示出两个主要挑战。他们缺乏在高度不确定性情况下分析安全性的能力，也缺乏以适合作为风险推断机制输入的实用程序形式处理各种数据的能力。为了解决这些困难，本文提出了一种使用模糊证据推理（ER）方法的基于主观安全性的评估和管理框架。因此，该框架可用于以系统的方式从多位专家那里收集和处理有关海上运输系统不同方面的主观风险评估信息。该模型的输出还可以为决策者提供一种透明的工具，以经济高效的方式评估特定情况下的海上安全政策选项。

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