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Foot-and-Mouth Disease Entrance Assessment Model Through Air Passenger Violations

机译：违反航空旅客口蹄疫入境评估模型

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摘要

This article aims to construct a risk model for the prediction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) entrance caused by passengers who illegally carry meat products of cloven-hoofed animals through international airports into a country. The risk that meat contaminated with the FMD virus is formulated as the probabilities of FMD factor events (the prevalence of FMD), the commodity factor event (the transportation, storage, and distribution (TSD) factor event), and the passenger event. Data used for analysis were records of illegal meat product carriers from areas A and B intercepted at an international airport in Taiwan. A risk model was proposed to simulate the probability distributions in disease prevalence, probability of FMD virus existing in the meat products after meat processing, and estimation of survival of virus and time period for TSD. The probability of the passenger event was hypothesized with the odds of intercepted passengers and estimated via logistic regression. The results showed that the odds of passengers being intercepted by beagles were higher than those intercepted by Customs. By conducting Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of FMD virus risk caused by FMD factors from area A was 149 times lower than that from area B. The probability of FMD virus risk caused by the passenger event from area A was four times lower than the corresponding probability from area B. The model provides a contribution to FMD prevention and can be a reference for developing models of other diseases.
机译：本文旨在构建一种风险模型，用于预测由非法将丁香蹄类动物的肉类产品通过国际机场运送到一个国家的乘客造成的口蹄疫（FMD）进入。肉类受FMD病毒污染的风险由FMD因子事件（FMD的发生率），商品因子事件（运输，储存和分配（TSD）因子事件）的概率以及旅客事件确定。用于分析的数据是在台湾国际机场截获的来自A和B区的非法肉类产品携带者的记录。提出了一种风险模型来模拟疾病流行的概率分布，肉类加工后肉制品中存在口蹄疫病毒的概率以及估计TSD的病毒存活时间和时间。假设发生旅客事件的可能性与被拦截旅客的几率有关，并通过逻辑回归进行估算。结果表明，小猎犬拦截旅客的几率高于海关拦截的机率。通过进行蒙特卡洛模拟，由A区域的FMD因子引起的口蹄疫病毒风险的概率比B区域低149倍。由A区域的乘客事件引起的口蹄疫病毒风险的概率比相应区域低四倍。该模型有助于预防口蹄疫，并可为开发其他疾病的模型提供参考。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2009年第4期|599-609|共11页
  • 作者

    Xiao-Wei Lin; Chin-Tsang Chiang; Tai-Hwa Shin; Yan-Nian Jiang; Chin-Cheng Chou;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Mathematics, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Section 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan;

    Department of Mathematics, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Section 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan;

    Hsinchu Branch, Bureau of Animal and Plant Health Inspection and Quarantine, No. 25, Harng Chin North Road, Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, Taoyuan 337, Taiwan;

    Department of Animal Science and Technology, National Taiwan University, No. 50, Lane 155, Keelung Road, Section 3, Taipei 106, Taiwan;

    Department of Veterinary Medicine, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Section 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan Center for Zoonoses Research, College of Bio-Resources and Agriculture, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Section 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan Department of Veterinary Medicine, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Section 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    air passenger; animal products; foot-and-mouth disease; logistic regression;

    机译：航空旅客动物产品口蹄疫;逻辑回归;

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