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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Semiparametric Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Occupational Accident Risk in the Casual Labor Market, Piracicaba, Southeast Brazil
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Semiparametric Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Occupational Accident Risk in the Casual Labor Market, Piracicaba, Southeast Brazil

机译：巴西东南部皮拉西卡巴市临时工市场中职业事故风险空间分布的半参数建模

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摘要

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.
机译：这项研究的目的是评估巴西东南部工业化城市市区中非正式工作市场中的工作事故风险的空间分布，并在控制了空间风险后检查年龄，性别和职业类型的伴随影响变异。所采用的基本方法是基于人群的病例对照研究，特别关注工作的空间位置。案件均为该市所有临时工在一年内发生的工伤事故；通过对城市家庭进行系统随机抽样，从临时工的来源人群中选择对照。工伤事故的空间分布是通过半参数广义加性模型估算的，该模型以病例和对照的地理坐标的非参数二维样条为非线性空间成分，并在参数成分中包括年龄，性别和职业作为线性预测变量。在2003年1月11日至2004年10月31日之间，我们分析了巴西Piracicaba的1,918例病例和2,245例对照。相对于研究区域的平均风险，确定了发生事故的风险高低区域（p <0.01）。在研究区域中，非正式工人的工作事故风险差异很大。校正此空间差异后，可以确定年龄，性别和职业群体对事故风险的重要影响。对高风险人群和高风险地区的深入了解为有关事故因果关系的假设以及有效的公共事故预防政策的制定奠定了基础。

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