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Influence of Routine Slaughtering on the Evolution of BSE: Example of British and French Slaughterings

机译：例行屠宰对疯牛病演变的影响：以英法屠宰为例

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摘要

The aim of this article is to build a methodology allowing the study and the comparison of the potential spread of BSE at the scale of countries under different routine slaughtering conditions in order to evaluate the risk of nonextinction due to this slaughtering. We first model the evolution in discrete time of the proportion of animals in the latent period and that of infectives, assuming a very large branching population not necessarily constant in size, two age classes, less than 1-year-old animals, and adult animals. We analytically derive a bifurcation parameter p_0 allowing us to predict either endemicity or extinction of the disease, which has the meaning of an epidemiological reproductive rate. We show that the classical reproductive number R_o cannot be used for prediction if the size of the population, when healthy, does not remain stable throughout time. We illustrate the qualitative results by means of simulations with either the British routine slaughtering probabilities or the French ones, the other conditions being assumed identical in both countries. We show that the French probabilities lead to a higher risk of spread of the disease than the British ones, this result being mainly due to a smaller value of the routine slaughtering probability of the adult animals in France than in Great Britain.
机译：本文的目的是建立一种方法，以研究和比较不同常规屠宰条件下在国家范围内疯牛病的潜在传播，以便评估由于这种屠宰而造成的灭绝风险。我们首先对潜伏期动物和传染性动物的比例在离散时间内的演化进行建模，假设其分支种群非常大，规模不一定恒定，两个年龄段，小于一岁的动物和成年动物。我们通过分析得出分叉参数p_0，从而可以预测疾病的特有性或绝种，这具有流行病学生殖率的含义。我们表明，如果人口规模（在健康的情况下）在整个时间中都无法保持稳定，则不能将经典生殖数R_o用于预测。我们用英国例行屠杀概率或法国例行屠杀概率的模拟方法来说明定性结果，两国假定其他条件相同。我们表明，与英国相比，法国的概率导致疾病传播的风险更高，这主要是由于法国对成年动物的常规屠宰概率的值小于英国。

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