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A Heuristic Risk Assessment Technique for Birdstrike Management at Airports

机译：机场鸟击管理的启发式风险评估技术

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摘要

Collisions between birds and aircraft (birdstrikes) have caused the loss of at least 88 aircraft and 243 lives in world civil aviation. Conservative estimates suggest that more routine damage and delays following birdstrikes cost the industry and its insurers US$1.2-1.5 billion per year. The majority of strikes happen close to airports and most countries have regulations that require airport managers to control the birdstrike risk on their property. Birdstrike prevention has, however, lagged behind other aspects of flight safety in the development and implementation of risk assessment protocols, possibly because of the inherent difficulty in quantifying the variability in the populations and behavior of the various bird species involved. This article presents a technique that uses both national and airport-specific data to evaluate risk by creating a simple probability-times-severity matrix. It uses the frequency of strikes reported for different bird species at a given airport over the preceding five years as a measure of strike probability, and the proportion of strikes with each species that result in damage to aircraft, in the national birdstrike database, as a measure of likely severity. Action thresholds for risk levels for particular bird species are then defined, above which the airport should take action to reduce the risk further. The assessment is designed for airports where the reporting and collation of birdstrike events is reasonably consistent over time and where a bird hazard management program of some sort is already in place. This risk assessment is designed to measure risk to the airport as a business rather than risk to the traveling passenger individually. It therefore takes no account of aircraft movement rate in the calculations and is aimed at minimizing the number of damaging incidents rather than concentrating on catastrophic events. Once set up at an airport, the technique is simple to implement for nonexperts, and it allows managers to focus bird control resources on the species causing the greatest risk, hence maximizing the return on investment. This protocol is now being successfully used at major airports in the United Kingdom and elsewhere in the world.
机译：鸟类与飞机之间的碰撞（鸟击）造成了世界民航上至少88架飞机的损失和243人的生命。保守的估计表明，鸟击之后更多的例行损害和延误使航空业及其保险公司每年损失1.2至15亿美元。大多数罢工发生在机场附近，并且大多数国家/地区都制定了法规，要求机场经理控制其财产遭受鸟击的风险。但是，在制定和实施风险评估协议时，鸟击预防工作一直落后于飞行安全的其他方面，这可能是因为量化涉及的各种鸟类的种群和行为的可变性存在固有的困难。本文介绍了一种技术，该技术通过创建简单的概率-时间-严重性矩阵，使用国家和机场特定数据来评估风险。它使用前五年在给定的机场针对不同鸟类所报告的罢工频率作为衡量罢工概率的方法，并使用国家鸟震数据库中每种对飞机造成损害的罢工所占的比例作为指标。可能严重程度的度量。然后定义特定鸟类的风险水平的行动阈值，超过该阈值机场应采取行动进一步降低风险。该评估是针对以下情况而设计的：机场，随着时间的流逝，鸟类撞击事件的报告和校对是相当一致的，并且已经实施了某种鸟类危害管理程序。此风险评估旨在衡量作为企业的机场风险，而不是对旅行旅客的风险。因此，它在计算中不考虑飞机的移动速度，其目的是最大程度地减少破坏性事故的数量，而不是着重于灾难性事件。一旦在机场安装了该技术，该技术对于非专家来说很容易实现，它使管理人员可以将鸟类控制资源集中在风险最大的物种上，从而最大程度地提高投资回报率。该协议现已在英国和世界其他地区的主要机场成功使用。

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