• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model-Based Environmental Assessment: The NUSAP System
【24h】

Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model-Based Environmental Assessment: The NUSAP System

机译：基于模型的环境评估中不确定性的定量和定性测量相结合：NUSAP系统

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This article discusses recent experiences with the Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on four case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes but also to complex models in a meaningful way and that NUSAP is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also (model) assumptions. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative analysis of parameter sensitivity and qualitative review (pedigree analysis) of parameter strength. It provides an analytic tool to prioritize uncertainties according to quantitative and qualitative insights in the limitations of available knowledge. We show that extension of the pedigree scheme to include societal dimensions of uncertainty, such as problem framing and value-laden assumptions, further promotes reflexivity and collective learning. When used in a deliberative setting, NUSAP pedigree assessment has the potential to foster a deeper social debate and a negotiated management of complex environmental problems.
机译：本文基于复杂度各不相同的四个案例研究，讨论了用于多维不确定性评估的数字单位扩展评估谱系（NUSAP）系统的最新经验。我们表明，NUSAP方法不仅适用于相对简单的计算方案，而且还可以有意义的方式适用于复杂的模型，并且NUSAP不仅可用于评估参数不确定性，而且可用于评估（模型）假设。诊断图可用于综合参数敏感性的定量分析结果和参数强度的定性检查（谱系分析）结果。它提供了一种分析工具，可根据可用知识的局限性中的定量和定性见解对不确定性进行优先排序。我们表明，将谱系计划扩展到包括不确定性的社会维度，例如问题框架和价值担负的假设，将进一步促进反思性和集体学习。在协商环境中使用时，NUSAP谱系评估有可能引发更深入的社会辩论，并通过谈判解决复杂的环境问题。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号