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Compressed Natural Gas Bus Safety: A Quantitative Risk Assessment

机译：压缩天然气公交车的安全性：量化风险评估

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This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to lire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 x 10~(-5) fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 x 10~(-6) and 4.0 x 10~(-5), respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.
机译：这项研究评估了与压缩天然气（CNG）车辆系统相关的火灾安全风险，该系统主要包括典型的校车和辅助燃料基础设施。这项研究确定了结果对组件故障率和火灾后果后果的敏感性。确定对火灾安全风险影响最大的组件和子系统。最后，将结果与当前的柴油校车的火灾风险进行比较。直接计算与柴油动力车辆相关的安全风险是可能的，因为这些技术是成熟的技术，具有历史性能数据。由于经验有限，CNG公交车队的致命事故数据很少。因此，本研究使用概率风险评估（PRA）方法对CNG公共汽车的火灾安全风险进行建模和预测。本研究使用通用故障数据，工程判断和假设。这项研究预测，典型的CNG巴士的平均火灾死亡风险为，包括乘车乘客在内的所有涉案人员，每1亿英里约有0.23例死亡。这项研究估计，仅公共汽车乘客每1亿英里平均死亡事故为0.16例。根据历史数据，所有校车人员和乘车乘客的柴油校车平均火灾致死风险分别为每100百万英里0.091和0.0007。因此，可以得出结论，CNG公交车更容易造成人身伤亡的危险，是柴油公交车的2.5倍，而公交车乘客的死亡风险更是高出两个数量级。该研究估计每年每辆巴士的平均火灾风险频率为2.2 x 10〜（-5）人死亡。 5％和95％不确定性范围分别为9.1 x 10〜（-6）和4.0 x 10〜（-5）。发现该风险结果受泄压阀，CNG气缸和燃油管道的故障率影响最大。

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