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Bringing Social Standards into Project Evaluation Under Dynamic Uncertainty

机译：在动态不确定性下将社会标准纳入项目评估

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Society often sets social standards that define thresholds of damage to society or the environment above which compensation must be paid to the state or other parties. In this article, we analyze the interdependence between the use of social standards and investment evaluation under dynamic uncertainty where a negative externality above a threshold established by society requires an assessment and payment of damages. Under uncertainty, the party considering implementing a project or new technology must not only assess when the project is economically efficient to implement but when to abandon a project that could potentially exceed the social standard. Using real-option theory and simple models, we demonstrate how such a social standard can be integrated into cost-benefit analysis through the use of a development option and a liability option coupled with a damage function. Uncertainty, in fact, implies that both parties interpret the social standard as a target for safety rather than an inflexible barrier that cannot be overcome. The larger is the uncertainty, in fact, the greater will be the tolerance for damages in excess of the social standard from both parties.
机译：社会通常会制定社会标准，以定义对社会或环境造成损害的阈值，在此阈值以上，必须向国家或其他当事方支付赔偿。在本文中，我们分析了在动态不确定性下社会标准的使用与投资评估之间的相互依赖性，在动态不确定性下，高于社会设定的阈值的负外部性需要评估和赔偿。在不确定的情况下，考虑实施一个项目或新技术的一方不仅必须评估该项目何时在经济上可以有效实施，而且还必须何时放弃一个可能超过社会标准的项目。使用实物期权理论和简单模型，我们演示了如何通过使用发展期权和负债期权以及损害函数将这样的社会标准整合到成本效益分析中。实际上，不确定性意味着双方都将社会标准解释为安全目标，而不是无法克服的僵化障碍。不确定性越大，实际上，双方对超出社会标准的损害的容忍度越大。

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