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Dead Reckoning: Demographic Determinants of the Accuracy of Mortality Risk Perceptions

机译：航位推算：死亡率风险感知准确性的人口统计学决定因素

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摘要

General patterns of bias in risk beliefs are well established in the literature, but much less is known about how these biases vary across the population. Using a sample of almost 500 people, the regression analysis in this article yields results consistent with the well-established pattern that small risks are overassessed and large risks are underassessed. The accuracy of these risk beliefs varies across demographic factors, as does the switch point at which people go from underassessment to overassessment, which we found to be 1,500 deaths annually for the full sample. Better educated people have more accurate risk beliefs, and there are important differences in the risk perception by race and gender that also may be of policy interest.
机译：风险信念偏见的一般模式在文献中已得到充分确立，但人们对这些偏见在人群中的变化知之甚少。本文使用近500名样本进行了回归分析，得出的结果与行之有效的模式一致：小风险被高估，大风险被低估。这些风险信念的准确性因人口因素而异，人们从低估到高估的转换点也不同，对于整个样本，我们发现每年有1500例死亡。受过良好教育的人具有更准确的风险信念，并且种族和性别对风险的认识存在重要差异，这也可能与政策有关。

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