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What Can Decision Analysis Do for Invasive Species Management?

机译：决策分析对入侵物种管理有什么作用？

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摘要

Decisions about management of invasive species are difficult for all the reasons typically addressed by multiattribute decision analysis: uncertain outcomes, multiple and conflicting objectives, and many interested parties with differing views on both facts and values. This article illustrates how the tools of multiattribute analysis can improve management of invasive species, with an emphasis on making explicit the social values and preferences that must inform invasive species management. Risk assessment protocols developed previously for invasive species management typically suffer from two interacting flaws: (1) separating risk assessment from risk management, thus disrupting essential connections between the social values at stake in invasive species decisions and the scientific knowledge necessary to predict the likely impacts of management actions, and (2) relying on expert judgment about risk framed in qualitative and value-laden terms, inadvertently mixing the expert's judgment about what is likely to happen with personal preferences. Using the values structuring and probability-modeling elements of formal decision analysis can remedy these difficulties and make invasive species management responsive to both good science and public values. The management of feral pigs in Hawaiian ecosystems illustrates the need for such an integrated approach.
机译：由于多属性决策分析通常会解决所有各种原因，因此很难做出有关入侵物种管理的决策：不确定的结果，多重且相互矛盾的目标，以及许多对事实和价值都有不同看法的有关方面。本文说明了多属性分析工具如何改善入侵物种的管理，重点在于明确必须为入侵物种管理提供信息的社会价值和偏好。先前为入侵物种管理制定的风险评估协议通常存在两个相互影响的缺陷：（1）将风险评估与风险管理分开，从而破坏了入侵物种决策所涉及的社会价值与预测可能影响所需的科学知识之间的基本联系。 （2）依靠专家对风险的定性和高价值框架来判断，无意间将专家对可能发生的情况与个人喜好的判断混为一谈。使用形式决策分析的价值结构和概率建模元素可以解决这些困难，并使入侵物种管理能够响应良好的科学和公共价值。夏威夷生态系统中野猪的管理说明了这种综合方法的必要性。

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