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Establishment Risks for Invasive Species

机译：入侵物种的建立风险

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摘要

This article presents a quantitative methodology for evaluating the probability of invasive pest species establishing persistent populations. The estimation of pest establishment relies on data and information describing the biology and ecology of the pest and its interactions with potential host species and the regional environment. This information is developed using a model construct borrowed from theoretical population ecology. The methodology for estimating the probability of pest establishment is part of an overall framework that explores the implications of reductions in pest invasions on subsequent establishment. The risk reduction framework integrates the engineering aspects of different technologies for reducing pest entry, the biology and ecology of pest species, the suitability of potentially susceptible hosts, and the quality of available habitats. The methodology for estimating the risk of establishment is presented using an example pest, the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis), which has been introduced into the United States via solid wood packing materials (SWPM) used in international commerce. Uncertainties inherent to the estimation of model parameters that determine the risk of establishment are defined, quantified, and propagated through the population model. Advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed along with recommendations to make the approach more useful in the management of risks posed by the establishment of pest populations.
机译：本文提出了一种定量方法，用于评估侵入性有害生物物种建立持久种群的可能性。对有害生物建立的估计依赖于描述有害生物的生物学和生态学及其与潜在宿主物种和区域环境的相互作用的数据和信息。此信息是使用从理论种群生态学中借来的模型构建物开发的。估计有害生物建立可能性的方法是整个框架的一部分，该框架探讨了减少有害生物入侵对随后建立的影响。降低风险框架整合了减少有害生物进入，有害生物物种的生物学和生态学，潜在易感宿主的适宜性以及可用生境质量的各种技术的工程方面。估计定居风险的方法是使用示例性有害生物亚洲长角甲虫（Anoplophora glabripennis）提出的，该虫已通过国际贸易中使用的实木包装材料（SWPM）引入美国。通过人口模型定义，量化和传播模型参数估计所固有的不确定性，这些不确定性确定了建立的风险。讨论了所提出方法的优点和局限性，并提出了一些建议，以使该方法在管理害虫种群所带来的风险管理中更加有用。

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