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Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective

机译：脆弱性和风险：从政治和政策角度的一些思考

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摘要

Public policies to mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as hurricanes or terrorist attacks will differ depending on whether they focus on reducing risk or reducing vulnerability. Here we present and defend six assertions aimed at exploring the benefits of vulnerability-based policies. (1) Risk-based approaches to covering the costs of extreme events do not depend for their success on reduction of vulnerability. (2) Risk-based approaches to preparing for extreme events are focused on acquiring accurate probabilistic information about the events themselves. (3) Understanding and reducing vulnerability does not demand accurate predictions of the incidence of extreme events. (4) Extreme events are created by context. (5) It is politically difficult to justify vulnerability reduction on economic grounds. (6) Vulnerability reduction is a human rights issue; risk reduction is not.
机译：减轻飓风或恐怖袭击等极端事件的影响的公共政策会有所不同，这取决于它们是否侧重于降低风险或降低脆弱性。在这里，我们提出并捍卫六项主张，以探索基于漏洞的策略的好处。 （1）基于风险的方法来支付极端事件的成本并不取决于其成功与否降低脆弱性。 （2）基于风险的极端事件准备方法着重于获取有关事件本身的准确概率信息。 （3）了解和减少脆弱性并不需要对极端事件的发生率做出准确的预测。 （4）极端事件是根据上下文创建的。 （5）从经济的角度来论证减少脆弱性在政治上是困难的。 （6）减少脆弱性是一个人权问题；降低风险不是。

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