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Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks: A Holistic Framework

机译:了解复合,互连,交互和级联风险:整体框架

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In recent years, there has been a gradual increase in research literature on the challenges of interconnected, compound, interacting, and cascading risks. These concepts are becoming ever more central to the resilience debate. They aggregate elements of climate change adaptation, critical infrastructure protection, and societal resilience in the face of complex, high-impact events. However, despite the potential of these concepts to link together diverse disciplines, scholars and practitioners need to avoid treating them in a superficial or ambiguous manner. Overlapping uses and definitions could generate confusion and lead to the duplication of research effort. This article gives an overview of the state of the art regarding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks. It is intended to help build a coherent basis for the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The main objective is to propose a holistic framework that highlights the complementarities of the four kinds of complex risk in a manner that is designed to support the work of researchers and policymakers. This article suggests how compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks could be used, with little or no redundancy, as inputs to new analyses and decisional tools designed to support the implementation of the SFDRR. The findings can be used to improve policy recommendations and support tools for emergency and crisis management, such as scenario building and impact trees, thus contributing to the achievement of a system-wide approach to resilience.
机译:近年来,有关互连,复合,交互和级联风险的挑战的研究文献逐渐增多。这些概念在弹性辩论中变得越来越重要。面对复杂的高影响力事件,它们汇集了气候变化适应,关键基础设施保护和社会适应力等要素。然而,尽管这些概念有可能将不同学科联系在一起,但学者和实践者仍需要避免以肤浅或模棱两可的方式对待它们。重叠的使用和定义可能会造成混乱,并导致研究工作重复。本文概述了有关复合风险,互连风险,交互风险和级联风险的最新技术。它旨在帮助为实施《仙台减少灾害风险框架》(SFDRR)建立一致的基础。主要目标是提出一个整体框架,以支持研究人员和政策制定者的工作的方式,突出四种复杂风险的互补性。本文提出了如何使用复合风险,互连风险,相互作用风险和级联风险,而几乎没有冗余,也可以将其用作旨在支持SFDRR实施的新分析和决策工具的输入。调查结果可用于改善紧急情况和危机管理的政策建议和支持工具,例如,情景构建和影响树,从而有助于实现全系统的抵御能力方法。

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