• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Exploring the Potential for Multivariate Fragility Representations to Alter Flood Risk Estimates
【24h】

Exploring the Potential for Multivariate Fragility Representations to Alter Flood Risk Estimates

机译：探索多元脆弱性表示法改变洪水风险估计的潜力

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In flood risk analysis, limitations in the multivariate statistical models adopted to model the hydraulic load have restricted the probability of a defense suffering structural failure to be expressed conditionally on a single hydraulic loading variable. This is an issue at the coastal level where multiple loadings act on defenses with the exact combination of loadings dictating their failure probabilities. Recently, a methodology containing a multivariate statistical model with the flexibility to robustly capture the dependence structure between the individual loadings was used to derive extreme nearshore loading conditions. Its adoption will permit the incorporation of more precise representations of a structure's vulnerability in future analyses. In this article, a fragility representation of a shingle beach, where the failure probability is expressed over a three-dimensional loading parameter spacewater level, wave height, and periodis derived at two localities. Within the approach, a Gaussian copula is used to capture any dependencies between the simplified geometric parameters of a beach's shape. Beach profiles are simulated from the copula and the failure probability, given the hydraulic load, determined by the reformulated Bradbury barrier inertia parameter model. At one site, substantial differences in the annual failure probability distribution are observed between the new and existing approaches. At the other, the beach only becomes vulnerable after a significant reduction of the crest height with its mean annual failure probability close to that presently predicted. It is concluded that further application of multivariate approaches is likely to yield more effective flood risk management.
机译：在洪水风险分析中，为建模液压负荷而采用的多元统计模型的局限性限制了在单个液压负荷变量上有条件地表示防御遭受结构破坏的可能性。这是沿海地区的一个问题，在这种情况下，多个载荷作用于防御系统，并且载荷的确切组合决定了其失效概率。最近，一种包含多变量统计模型的方法可以灵活地捕获各个载荷之间的依存关系，从而可以得出极端的近岸载荷条件。它的采用将允许在将来的分析中更精确地表示结构的脆弱性。在本文中，以带状板海滩的脆弱性表示法，其中在两个位置上推导了三维载荷参数，空间水位，波浪高度和周期的失效概率。在该方法中，使用高斯关联函数来捕获海滩形状的简化几何参数之间的任何依存关系。根据配比和给定的液压载荷，通过重新计算的布拉德伯里势垒惯性参数模型确定了连接概率和失效概率，从而模拟了海滩剖面。在一个站点上，新方法和现有方法之间的年度故障概率分布存在很大差异。另一方面，只有在波峰高度大大降低后海滩才变得脆弱，其平均年破坏概率接近目前的预测值。结论是，多元方法的进一步应用可能会产生更有效的洪水风险管理。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号