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Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

机译：从判断和选择中了解累积风险感知：在洪水风险中的应用

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摘要

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk-seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.
机译：洪水，地震，飓风和海啸等灾难性事件很少见，但是每个事件在较长时间内至少发生一次的累积风险可能很大。在这项工作中，我们评估了累积洪水风险的感知，这些感知如何影响保险的选择以及感知和选择是否受到累积风险信息的影响。我们发现，参与者的累积风险判断可以很好地用双峰分布表示，其中一个组严重低估了风险，而一个组则适度高估了风险。与高估累积风险的人相比，低估累积风险的人有更多的风险选择选择。提供相对于相关时间段的明确的累积风险信息，而不是年度概率，是一种既便宜又有效的方法，可以改善对累积风险的感知以及人们为防范该风险所做的选择。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2019年第2期|488-504|共17页
  • 作者

    De La Maza Cristobal; Davis Alex; Gonzalez Cleotilde; Azevedo Ines;

  • 作者单位

    Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, 5000 Forbes Ave,Baker Hall 129, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA;

    Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, 5000 Forbes Ave,Baker Hall 129, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA;

    Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Social & Decis Sci, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA;

    Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, 5000 Forbes Ave,Baker Hall 129, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Choice; cumulative risks; flood insurance; heuristics; judgment;

    机译：选择;累积风险;洪水保险;启发式;判断;

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