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Determinants of Probability Neglect and Risk Attitudes for Disaster Risk: An Online Experimental Study of Flood Insurance Demand among Homeowners

机译：灾害风险的概率忽略和风险态度的决定因素：房主洪水保险需求的在线实验研究

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摘要

Little is known about why individuals place either a high or a very low value on mitigating risks of disaster-type events, like floods. This study uses panel data methods to explore the psychological factors affecting probability neglect of flood risk relevant to the zero end-point of the probability weighting function in Prospect Theory, and willingness-to-pay for flood insurance. In particular, we focus on explanatory variables of anticipatory and anticipated emotions, as well as the threshold of concern. Moreover, results obtained under real and hypothetical incentives are compared in an experiment with high experimental outcomes. Based on our findings, we suggest several policy recommendations to overcome individual decision processes, which may hinder flood protection efforts.
机译：人们为何对减轻洪水等灾难性事件的风险偏高或偏低的价值知之甚少。本研究使用面板数据方法探讨影响预期风险理论中概率加权函数零端点的洪水风险概率忽略的心理因素，以及水灾保险的支付意愿。特别是，我们关注预期和预期情绪的解释变量以及关注的阈值。此外，在具有较高实验结果的实验​​中，比较了在实际和假设激励下获得的结果。根据我们的发现，我们提出了一些克服单个决策过程的政策建议，这可能会阻碍防洪工作。

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