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An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System

机译：基于集成情景集合的飓风疏散建模框架：第1部分：决策支持系统

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This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program.
机译：本文介绍了一个新的基于场景的集成疏散（ISE）集成框架，以支持飓风疏散决策。它明确捕获了动态，不确定性以及人与自然系统的相互作用，这些对于飓风疏散的挑战至关重要，但在以前的正式疏散模型中并未完全捕获。危害由概率场景，人口行为与动态决策模型以及交通与动态用户均衡模型的集合来表示。这些组件集成在一个多阶段随机编程模型中，该模型可以最大程度地降低风险和旅行时间，以提供疏散命令建议树以及对该解决方案的风险和旅行时间性能的评估。 ISE框架建议提供了先进的技术，因为它们：（1）基于综合危害评估（旨在最终包括内陆洪水），（2）明确平衡有时将最小化风险和最小化差旅的竞争目标时间，（3）提供了一种对冲解决方案，该解决方案在飓风可能演变的方式范围内是可靠的，并且（4）利用飓风事件过程中增加信息（或不确定性程度降低）的实质价值。本文以北卡罗莱纳州东部的飓风伊莎贝尔（2003）为例，以说明该框架如何应用，可提供的结果类型以及如何与单情景确定性分析和两阶段随机的可用方法进行比较程序。

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