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A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom

机译：由于空间天气导致电力传输基础设施失败的社会经济影响风险评估框架：对英国的应用

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Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socioeconomic impacts of space weather, despite a growing gray literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigor. In this analysis, we therefore provide a general framework for assessing the potential socioeconomic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from geomagnetic disturbances, applying it to the British high-voltage electricity transmission network. Socioeconomic analysis of this threat has hitherto failed to address the general geophysical risk, asset vulnerability, and the network structure of critical infrastructure systems. We overcome this by using a three-part method that includes (i) estimating the probability of intense magnetospheric substorms, (ii) exploring the vulnerability of electricity transmission assets to geomagnetically induced currents, and (iii) testing the socioeconomic impacts under different levels of space weather forecasting. This has required a multidisciplinary approach, providing a step toward the standardization of space weather risk assessment. We find that for a Carrington-sized 1-in-100-year event with no space weather forecasting capability, the gross domestic product loss to the United Kingdom could be as high as 15.9 pound billion, with this figure dropping to 2.9 pound billion based on current forecasting capability. However, with existing satellites nearing the end of their life, current forecasting capability will decrease in coming years. Therefore, if no further investment takes place, critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather. Additional investment could provide enhanced forecasting, reducing the economic loss for a Carrington-sized 1-in-100-year event to 0.9 pound billion.
机译：在同行评审科学文献中，已经详细研究了空间天气现象。然而，尽管不同国家研究的灰色文学，但不同程度的方法严格的灰色文学，但是，尽管不同程度的方法严谨的灰色文学，但有可能是对太空天气的潜在社会经济影响的潜在社会经济影响。因此，在此分析中，我们为评估了几磁体干扰导致的关键基础设施故障的潜在社会经济影响提供了一般框架，将其应用于英国高压电力传输网络。这种威胁的社会经济分析迄今为止未能解决普通地球物理风险，资产漏洞和关键基础设施系统的网络结构。我们通过使用三部分方法来克服这一点，该方法包括（i）估算强磁体代甲的概率，（ii）探讨了电力传输资产对地磁诱导的电流的脆弱性，（iii）测试了不同层次的社会经济影响太空天气预报。这需要多学科方法，为空间天气风险评估的标准化提供阶段。我们发现，对于一个没有太空天气预报能力的Carrington-大小的100英寸赛事，英国的国内生产总值损失可能高达15.9磅的亿，这一数字下降到2.9磅的亿关于当前预测能力。然而，随着现有卫星接近其寿命结束，未来几年将降低当前的预测能力。因此，如果没有进一步的投资，则关键基础设施将变得更容易受到太空天气的影响。额外的投资可以提供增强的预测，降低了Carrington的1英寸年度活动的经济损失，达到0.9磅。

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