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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Evaluating Potential Distribution of High-Risk Aquatic Invasive Species in the Water Garden and Aquarium Trade at a Global Scale Based on Current Established Populations
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Evaluating Potential Distribution of High-Risk Aquatic Invasive Species in the Water Garden and Aquarium Trade at a Global Scale Based on Current Established Populations

机译：基于当前建立的人群的全球规模评估水上园和水族馆贸易高风险水族侵入物种的潜在分布

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摘要

Aquatic non-native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict future potential establishment. Typically, global habitat suitability models are fit for freshwater species with only climate variables, which provides little information about suitable terrestrial conditions for aquatic species. Remotely sensed data including topography and land cover data have the potential to improve our understanding of suitable habitat for aquatic species. In this study, we fit species distribution models using five different model algorithms for three non-native aquatic invasive species with bioclimatic, topographic, and remotely sensed covariates to evaluate potential suitable habitat beyond simple climate matches. The species examined included a frog (Xenopus laevis), toad (Bombina orientalis), and snail (Pomacea spp.). Using a unique modeling approach for each species including background point selection based on known established populations resulted in robust ensemble habitat suitability models. All models for all species had test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values greater than 0.70 and percent correctly classified values greater than 0.65. Importantly, we employed multivariate environmental similarity surface maps to evaluate potential extrapolation beyond observed conditions when applying models globally. These global models provide necessary forecasts of where these aquatic invasive species have the potential for establishment outside their native range, a key component in risk analyses.
机译：水生非原生侵入物种通常在全球水上花园和水族馆市场交易，其中一些物种对经济，环境和人类健康构成了重大威胁。在全球规模和区域尺度上了解这些物种的潜在合适的栖息地可以向风险评估提供信息，并预测未来的潜在建立。通常，全球栖息地适用性模型适用于仅具有气候变量的淡水种类，这提供了有关适用于水生物种的合适地面条件的信息。包括地形和陆地覆盖数据在内的远程感测数据有可能改善我们对水生物种的合适栖息地的理解。在这项研究中，我们使用五种不同模型算法适用于三种非本地水生侵入性物种的物种分布模型，具有生物素质，地形，远程感知的协变量，以评估超出简单气候匹配的潜在合适的栖息地。审查的物种包括青蛙（Xenopus Laevis），蟾蜍（Bombina Orientalis）和蜗牛（Pomacea SPP）。使用基于已知建立的人群的唯一模拟方法，包括基于已知建立的人群的背景点选择，导致强大的合成栖息地适用性模型。所有物种的所有型号都在接收器下具有测试区域，操作特性曲线值大于0.70，百分比正确分类值大于0.65。重要的是，我们采用多变量环境相似性表面图来评估在全球涂抹模型时超出观察到的条件的潜在推断。这些全球模型提供了必要的预测，其中这些水生侵入物种具有在原生范围之外建立的潜力，风险分析的关键组成部分。

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