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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tiete-Parana Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion
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A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tiete-Parana Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion

机译：基于专家意见评估Tiete-Parana Inland Waterway中不希望事件发生概率的方法

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摘要

The market share of Tiete-Parana inland waterway (TPIW) in the transport matrix of the Sao Paulo state, Brazil, is currently only 0.6%, but it is expected to increase to 6% over the next 20 years. In this scenario, to identify and explore potential undesired events a risk assessment is necessary. Part of this involves assigning the probability of occurrence of events, which usually is accomplished by a frequentist approach. However, in many cases, this approach is not possible due to unavailable or nonrepresentative data. This is the case of the TPIW that even though an expressive accident history is available, a frequentist approach is not suitable due to differences between current operational conditions and those met in the past. Therefore, a subjective assessment is an option as allows for working independently of the historical data, thus delivering more reliable results. In this context, this article proposes a methodology for assessing the probability of occurrence of undesired events based on expert opinion combined with fuzzy analysis. This methodology defines a criterion to weighting the experts and, using the fuzzy logic, evaluates the similarities among the experts' beliefs to be used in the aggregation process before the defuzzification that quantifies the probability of occurrence of the events based on the experts' opinion. Moreover, the proposed methodology is applied to the real case of the TPIW and the results obtained from the elicited experts are compared with a frequentist approach evidencing the impact on the results when considering different interpretations of the probability.
机译：Tiete-Parana Inland Waterway（TPIW）在巴西圣保罗州运输矩阵的市场份额目前仅为0.6％，但预计未来20年将增加到6％。在这种情况下，为了识别和探索潜在的不期望的事件，需要风险评估。其中的一部分涉及分配事件发生的可能性，这通常是通过频繁的方法完成的。但是，在许多情况下，由于不可用或非持久性数据，这种方法是不可能的。这是TPIW的情况，即使有表现力的事故历史可用，常见的方法也不适合由于当前的运营条件和过去遇到的差异。因此，主观评估是一种选择，允许独立于历史数据工作，从而提供更可靠的结果。在这方面，本文提出了一种评估基于专家意见的不期望事件发生概率的方法，结合模糊分析。该方法定义了将专家加权的标准，并且使用模糊逻辑，在Defuzzzzification之前，使用模糊逻辑评估专家信仰中的相似性，这些信念在Defuzzzzzifications基于专家意见来定量事件发生概率的概率。此外，所提出的方法应用于TPIW的实际情况，并将从引发专家获得的结果与频繁的方法进行比较，在考虑对概率的不同解释时对结果的影响。

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