Production of light military rotorcraft totaled more than 200 helicopters as recently as 2010, a year that marked the culmination of a multiyear cycle of expanding market demand. Subsequently, however, production dropped sharply to 160 units in 2011, before rebounding to 187 units in 2012. Since then, the trend has been downward. Production totaled 186 units in 2013, 167 in 2014, and 161 in 2015. Our forecast indicates that the next two years (2016 and 2017) should see some respite from market decline, but also shows that this relief will prove to be short-lived. Our projections indicate that production will rise significantly in both 2016 and 2017. No one program will account for this rise, which rather will result from short-term production increases in a number of programs in order to meet upward ticks in planned deliveries. Nevertheless, the extent of the anticipated production increase should not be underestimated. Indeed, our forecast calls for production in the light military segment in 2017 to total 216 units, surpassing even the production peak of 2010. After 2017, though, decline is expected to resume. Market fundamentals point to a sustained downward trend in production in succeeding years. Annual output is forecast to drop to double-digit levels as soon as 2022 and remain there for the rest of the forecast period and likely several years beyond. Foremost among the various trends affecting the light military rotorcraft market is the fact that many nations around the world have been reducing defense spending. Over the next few years, global instability and a need to recapitalize inventory can be expected to moderate, and perhaps even slightly reverse, this trend, particularly in the U.S. Even with stable or slightly rising defense spending, though, the light rotorcraft sector may not substantially benefit. A number of key ongoing rotorcraft acquisitions are running their course, and budgetary pressures have forced some of these programs to be reduced in scope. At the same time, few new-start rotorcraft acquisition programs have been formally launched, as resources are being directed to other areas. In general, military operators tend to favor medium/heavy rotorcraft, with the result that the medium/heavy segment is considerably larger than the light segment. The incorporation of advanced systems and technologies has boosted the capabilities of many of the newer light rotorcraft on the market, narrowing somewhat the capabilities gap between these machines and their medium counterparts. Nevertheless, the preference of military customers for larger rotorcraft will continue. It should be noted that a handful of emerging requirements exist that, should they be firmed up, could significantly boost the mid- to late-term forecast totals beyond the numbers shown in this study. Under the auspices of two separate programs, the Indian military is looking to acquire a combined total of 384 light helicopters. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has an emerging requirement to replace its fleet of more than 100 Bell TH-57s. And the French military could acquire some 180-190 light helicopters under its upcoming HIL program. Due to budgetary realities, the future of these efforts is uncertain. Any or all of them could be postponed beyond the forecast timeframe, suffer reductions in acquisition quantity, or even be canceled altogether. Given such uncertainties, we are not presently issuing forecasts for these four programs. But their emergence indicates that the light military market just might have some potential for growth in the outyears of our forecast. North America and Europe are currently the two largest regional markets for light military rotorcraft. Over the next 10 years, our forecast indicates that Asia will grow in relative importance as a regional market while the European and North American markets decline somewhat. Select sales opportunities will nevertheless continue to exist in North America and Europe. Manufacturers will also find sales opportunities in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. And, throughout the forecast period, the competition among manufacturers for sales will be intense as companies battle for their share of a shrinking global market.
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