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首页> 外文期刊>Russian meteorology and hydrology >METHODS OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF NONCONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION USING A MOISTURE TRANSFORMATION MODEL, WITH MICROPHYSICS PARAMETRIZATION. 2. A CLOUD FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON THE COMPUTED LIQUID WATER CONTENT FIELD AND NONCONVECTIVE CLOUD M
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METHODS OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF NONCONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION USING A MOISTURE TRANSFORMATION MODEL, WITH MICROPHYSICS PARAMETRIZATION. 2. A CLOUD FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON THE COMPUTED LIQUID WATER CONTENT FIELD AND NONCONVECTIVE CLOUD M

机译：利用微物理参数化的水分转化模型对非对流云进行短期预报和降水的方法。 2.一种基于计算出的液态水含量场和非对流云的云预测方法

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摘要

On the basis of the results of the moisture transformation model as described in the first part of the paper, a method is proposed for microphysics param-etrization of droplet and mixed clouds. The liquid water content space distribution and physical hypotheses are used. For the particle size spectrum, the gamma distribution is accepted. One of the parameters is constant, and the second varies at every time step due to coagulation and to the Bergeron-Findeisen process. The cloud phase composition is determined as dependent on temperature. A method for precipitation computation using a microphysical algorithm is developed. A technique is presented for computing critical water content, which regulates the precipitation amount, and the dependence of the critical water content on the portion of crystals and on microphysical parameters of the clouds is studied. The influence of the water content initial data on the results of precipitation computation is analyzed. Estimates of the precipitation forecast efficiency are presented. Peirce's index for the precipitation occurrenceonoccurrence forecasts is within 0.3-0.53.
机译：根据本文第一部分所述的水分转化模型的结果，提出了一种对液滴和混合云进行微观物理参数化的方法。使用了液态水的空间分布和物理假设。对于粒度谱，可以接受伽马分布。其中一个参数是恒定的，而第二个参数由于凝结和Bergeron-Findeisen过程而在每个时间步均变化。确定浊相成分取决于温度。开发了一种使用微物理算法进行降水计算的方法。提出了一种计算临界水含量的技术，该技术可调节降水量，并研究了临界水含量对晶体部分和云的微物理参数的依赖性。分析了含水量初始数据对降水计算结果的影响。提出了降水预报效率的估算。皮尔斯的降水发生/不发生预报指数在0.3-0.53之内。

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