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Box - Jenkins Model to forecast the amount of Rainfall during South West Monsoon over Gangetic West Bengal

机译：Box-Jenkins模型预测恒河西孟加拉邦西南季风期间的降雨量

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摘要

Monsoon represents a seasonal wind, which blows with consistency and regularity during a definite period of the year and is absent for rest of the period. Such seasonal changes of wind are primarily due to differences in the amount of heat received by different parts of the earth's surface from the sun. A precise definition of monsoon is a matter of choice, because one needs hardly to frame a set of rules, which embraces all facets of monsoon. Opinions differ on whether monsoon should be defined by its rain generating capacity, or by changes in global wind.rnThe purpose of the present paper is to view monsoon by its rain generating capacity and forecast the amount of rainfall during summer monsoon I southwest monsoon over Gangetic West Bengal during the period from 1873 to 2003. Autoregressive model is developed for the purpose. The result reveals that the first order autoregressive model is a representative model for forecasting the yearly total rainfall during summer monsoon. The forecast error is observed to be 0.125 %. The result further shows that the pattern of rainfall depicts a decreasing trend from 1953, which seems to be an important finding of the study concerning climate change.
机译：季风代表季节性风，在一年中的一定时期内连续且有规律地吹，其余时间则不存在。这种风的季节性变化主要是由于地球表面不同部分从太阳接收的热量不同。季风的精确定义是一个选择问题，因为几乎不需要制定一套涵盖季风各个方面的规则。关于季风应该由其降雨产生能力还是由全球风的变化来定义，存在不同的意见。本文的目的是通过季风产生能力来查看季风，并预测恒河西南季风的夏季雨量。 1873年至2003年期间的西孟加拉邦。为此目的，开发了自回归模型。结果表明，一阶自回归模型是预测夏季风年总降水量的代表性模型。观察到的预测误差为0.125％。结果进一步表明，降雨模式从1953年开始呈下降趋势，这似乎是有关气候变化研究的重要发现。

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