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Timely Verification at Large-Scale Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants

机译：大型气体离心浓缩厂的及时验证

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摘要

This article examines challenges in international nuclear safeguards pertaining to the timely detection of highly enriched uranium production at large-scale gas centrifuge enrichment plants. To establish where present gas centrifuge enrichment plant safeguards measures and approaches could be strengthened, we have created a discrete time model for simulating hypothetical misuse scenarios, both through transient phases and at steady-state. We find that timely detection of misuse at modern large-scale facilities presents a challenge for international safeguards. A toolbox of unattended measurement systems, along with remote monitoring, however, could be used to improve detection timeliness, enabling the initiation of follow-up activities, potentially on a rapid time scale. These measures, which would need very low false alarm rates, should be implemented in a graded approach, depending on the characteristics of each enrichment plant and an analysis of plausible acquisition paths for the State in which it is situated. Some of these technologies could provide significant benefit to plant operators.
机译：本文探讨了国际核保障措施中与在大型气体离心浓缩厂中及时检测高浓缩铀生产有关的挑战。为了确定可以在何处加强当前的气体离心浓缩厂的保障措施和方法，我们创建了一个离散时间模型，用于通过过渡阶段和稳态来模拟假设的滥用情况。我们发现，及时发现现代大型设施中的滥用行为对国际保障提出了挑战。但是，可以使用无人值守测量系统的工具箱以及远程监视来提高检测的及时性，从而有可能在很短的时间内启动后续活动。这些措施将需要极低的误报率，应根据每个浓缩厂的特点以及对其所在国的合理获取途径的分析，采用分级方法实施。其中一些技术可以为工厂运营商带来巨大的收益。

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  • 来源
    《Science & global security》 |2017年第3期|59-79|共21页
  • 作者

    Mark E. Walker; Robert J. Goldston;

  • 作者单位

    Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA;

    Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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