A probabilistic model for a gas explosion due to leakages in the grey cast iron gas mains

Monika B. Forys; Dorota Kurowicka; Bas Peppelman

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A probabilistic model for a gas explosion due to leakages in the grey cast iron gas mains

机译：灰铸铁燃气干管泄漏引起的瓦斯爆炸概率模型

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In this paper we propose a model for the probability of an explosion caused by a leakage form grey cast iron pipes in the city of Amsterdam as a function of pipeline and environmental characteristics. The parameters in the model are quantified, with uncertainty, using historical data and structured expert judgment, by use of the Classical Model. Eleven experts from Dutch distribution system operators (DSO) and Kiwa Gas Technology participated in the research. The model has to provide the overall probability of an explosion per year and a prioritization of pipes in terms of their potential contribution to the probability of explosion, which can help DSO's to prioritize their replacements.

机译：在本文中，我们提出了一个模型，用于分析阿姆斯特丹市灰铸铁管道泄漏引起的爆炸概率，该概率是管道和环境特征的函数。该模型中的参数使用历史数据和结构化专家判断（通过经典模型）可以不确定地量化。来自荷兰配电系统运营商（DSO）和Kiwa Gas Technology的11名专家参加了研究。该模型必须提供每年爆炸的总体概率，并根据其对爆炸概率的潜在影响来确定管道的优先级，这可以帮助DSO优先考虑其更换的可能性。

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来源
《Science and Technology of Advanced Materials》 |2013年第11期|270-279|共10页
作者
Monika B. Forys; Dorota Kurowicka; Bas Peppelman;
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作者单位

Kacholieke Universiteit Leuven, Department of Mathematics, Celestijnenlaan 20, B-3001 Heverlee, Belgium;

Delft University of Technology, Department of Applied Mathematics, Delft 2628CD, The Netherlands;

Liander N.V., Utrechtseweg 68, 6812 AH Amhem, The Netherlands;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Risk analysis; Expert judgment; Gas pipes; Monte Carlo simulation; Corrosion; Third party interference; Joint failure bending stress; Grey cast iron;

机译：风险分析;专家判断;煤气管;蒙特卡罗模拟;腐蚀;第三方干扰;关节破坏弯曲应力;灰铸铁;

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A probabilistic model for a gas explosion due to leakages in the grey cast iron gas mains

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