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首页> 外文期刊>The Science of the Total Environment >Modeling the effect of land use and climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical West African catch-ment (Dano, Burkina Faso) using SHETRAN
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Modeling the effect of land use and climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical West African catch-ment (Dano, Burkina Faso) using SHETRAN

机译：使用SHETRAN对热带西非集水区（布基纳法索达诺）的土地利用和气候变化对水资源和土壤侵蚀的影响进行建模

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This study investigates the effect of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate change on catchment hydrology and soil erosion in the Dano catchment in south-western Burkina Faso based on hydrological and soil erosion modeling. The past LULC change is studied using land use maps of the years 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2013. Based on these maps future LULC scenarios were developed for the years 2019, 2025 and 2030. The observed past and modeled future LULC are used to feed SHETRAN, a hydrological and soil erosion model. Observed and modeled climate data cover the period 1990-2030.The isolated influence of LULC change assuming a constant climate is simulated by applying the seven LULCmaps under observed climate data of the period 1990-2015. The isolated effect of climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5 of CCLM4-8) is studied by applying the LULCmap of 1990 to the period 1990-2032. Additionally, we combined past modeled climate data and past observed LULCmaps. Two chronological and continuous simulationswere used to estimate the impact of LULC in the past and in the future by gradually applying the LULC maps. These simulations consider the combined impact of LULC and climate change.The simulations that assumed a constant climate and a changing LULC showincreasingwater yield (3.6%-46.5%) and mainly increasing specific sediment yield (-3.3%-52.6%). The simulations that assume constant LULC and climate as changing factor indicate increases in water yield of 24.5% to 46.7% and in sediment yield of 31.1% to 54.7% between the periods 1990-2005 and 2006-2032. The continuous simulations signal a clear increase in water yield (20.3%-73.4%) and specific sediment yield (24.7% to 90.1%). Actual evapotranspiration is estimated to change by between-7.3% (only LUCC) to +3.3% (only climate change). When comparing observed LULC and climate change alone, climate change has a larger impact on discharge and sediment yield, but LULCamplifies climate change impacts strongly. However, future LULC (2019-2030) will have a stronger impact as currently observed. (c) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.
机译：本研究基于水文和土壤侵蚀模型，研究了西南布基纳法索达诺流域的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）以及气候变化对流域水文和土壤侵蚀的影响。使用1990、2000、2007和2013年的土地利用图来研究过去的LULC变化。基于这些图，为2019、2025和2030年开发了未来的LULC方案。 SHETRAN，水文和土壤侵蚀模型。观测和建模的气候数据涵盖了1990年至2030年期间。通过在1990年至2015年观测到的气候数据下应用七个LULCmap，模拟了假设气候恒定的LULC变化的孤立影响。通过将1990年的LULCmap应用于1990-2032年，研究了气候情景的孤立影响（RCLM4.5和CCLM4-8的8.5）。此外，我们结合了过去模拟的气候数据和过去观测到的LULCmap。通过逐步应用LULC映射，使用了两个按时间顺序和连续的模拟来估算LULC在过去和将来的影响。这些模拟考虑了LULC和气候变化的综合影响。假设气候恒定且LULC发生变化的模拟显示出水产量增加（3.6％-46.5％），主要是比泥沙产量增加（-3.3％-52.6％）。以LULC和气候恒定作为变化因子的模拟表明，在1990-2005年至2006-2032年期间，水的产量增加了24.5％至46.7％，沉积物的产量增加了31.1％至54.7％。连续的模拟表明水的产量（20.3％-73.4％）和特定的沉积物产量（24.7％至90.1％）明显增加。实际的蒸散量估计将在-7.3％（仅LUCC）到+ 3.3％（仅气候变化）之间变化。仅将观测到的土地利用变化和土地变化与气候变化进行比较时，气候变化对排放量和泥沙产量的影响较大，但土地利用变化和土地变化显着放大了气候变化的影响。但是，正如目前观察到的那样，未来的土地利用，土地利用变化和土地（2019-2030）将会产生更大的影响。 （c）2018年由Elsevier B.V.

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