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首页> 外文期刊>The Science of the Total Environment >A Random Forest-Cellular Automata modelling approach to explore future land use/cover change in Attica (Greece), under different socio-economic realities and scales
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A Random Forest-Cellular Automata modelling approach to explore future land use/cover change in Attica (Greece), under different socio-economic realities and scales

机译：在不同的社会经济现实和规模下，采用随机森林-细胞自动机建模方法探索阿提卡（希腊）未来土地利用/覆盖变化

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This paper explores potential future land use/cover (LUC) dynamics in the Attica region, Greece, under three distinct economic performance scenarios. During the last decades, Attica underwent a significant and predominantly unregulated process of urban growth, due to a substantial increase in housing demand coupled with limited land use planning controls. However, the recent financial crisis affected urban growth trends considerably. This paper uses the observed LUC trends between 1991 and 2016 to sketch three divergent future scenarios of economic development. The observed LUC trends are then analysed using 27 dynamic, biophysical, socio-economic, terrain and proximity-based factors, to generate transition potential maps, implementing a Random Forests (RF) regression modelling approach. Scenarios are projected to 2040 by implementing a spatially explicit Cellular Automata (CA) model. The resulting maps are subjected to a multiple resolution sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of spatial resolution of the input data to the model outputs. Findings show that, under the current setting of an underdeveloped land use planning apparatus, a long-term scenario of high economic growth will increase built-up surfaces in the region by almost 24%, accompanied by a notable decrease in natural areas and cropland. Interestingly, in the case that the currently negative economic growth rates persist, artificial surfaces in the region are still expected to increase by approximately 7.5% by 2040. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：本文探讨了在三种不同的经济绩效情景下希腊阿提卡地区潜在的未来土地利用/覆盖（LUC）动态。在过去的几十年中，由于住房需求的大幅增长以及有限的土地利用规划控制，阿提卡经历了重大且不受监管的城市增长过程。但是，最近的金融危机极大地影响了城市的增长趋势。本文使用观察到的1991年至2016年LUC趋势来勾勒出未来经济发展的三种不同情况。然后使用27种动态，生物物理，社会经济，地形和基于邻近度的因素来分析观察到的LUC趋势，以生成过渡势图，从而实施随机森林（RF）回归建模方法。通过实现空间明确的元胞自动机（CA）模型，可以将情景预测到2040年。对生成的地图进行多分辨率敏感性分析，以评估输入数据对模型输出的空间分辨率的影响。调查结果表明，在当前土地利用规划工具不发达的情况下，长期的高经济增长情景将使该地区的建筑面积增加近24％，同时自然面积和耕地面积将显着减少。有趣的是，如果当前的负经济增长率持续存在，到2040年该地区的人造表面预计仍将增长约7.5％。（C）2018 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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