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首页> 外文期刊>The Science of the Total Environment >Hydro-thermal boundary conditions at different underlying surfaces in a permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
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Hydro-thermal boundary conditions at different underlying surfaces in a permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

机译：青藏高原多年冻土区不同下垫面热液边界条件

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Hydro-thermal properties of permafrost and its distribution are sensitive to climate changes and human activities. Accurate and reasonable prediction on aforementioned information is important for eco-environment construction and vital infrastructures development. To model the current and future states of permafrost, it is a key challenge to effectively determine the upper hydro-thermal boundary conditions for permafrost models under changing climate and different underlying surfaces at proper spatial and temporal scales. An approach, combined regional climate downscaling method with model output statistics method, was developed to produce a time series of air temperature, surface temperatures, and surface unfrozen water contents for different underlying surfaces. It provided various climate and surface parameters at a spatial scale on the order of 10(2) m(2) for engineering designs, which was used to predict boundary conditions under possible climate scenarios. The predicted and simulated models were calibrated and validated by the monitored data at an experimental site in Chumar, China, close to the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and the Qinghai-Tibet Highway. Results show that the multiple linear regression model (MLRM) can predict the current states and future changes of upper hydro-thermal boundary conditions for permafrost while the original states of natural surface are modified by natural or human factors on the condition of complicated climatic and complex topography regions. The statistical regression model (SRM) based on the outputs of regional climate model (RCM) and MLRM provides a simple method for the convenience of numerical calculation. These results also indicate the possible applications to other areas and situations. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：多年冻土的水热性质及其分布对气候变化和人类活动敏感。对上述信息进行准确合理的预测对于生态环境建设和重要基础设施的发展至关重要。要对多年冻土的当前和未来状态进行建模，有效地确定气候变化和不同地表在适当的时空尺度下，多年冻土模型的水热边界条件是一个关键挑战。开发了一种将区域气候缩减方法与模型输出统计方法相结合的方法，以针对不同下垫面生成空气温度，地表温度和地表未冻结水含量的时间序列。它为工程设计提供了空间尺度为10（2）m（2）的各种气候和地面参数，用于预测可能的气候情景下的边界条件。预测和模拟的模型在中国楚马（靠近青藏铁路和青藏公路）的一个实验点的监测数据中进行了校准和验证。结果表明，多元线性回归模型（MLRM）可以预测多年冻土的水热边界条件的当前状态和未来变化，而在复杂的气候和复杂的条件下，自然表面的原始状态会被自然或人为因素修改地形区域。基于区域气候模型（RCM）和MLRM输出的统计回归模型（SRM）为简化数值计算提供了一种简单的方法。这些结果还表明可能应用于其他领域和情况。 （C）2019 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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