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首页> 外文期刊>The Science of the Total Environment >A novel comprehensive risk assessment method for sudden water accidents in the Middle Route of the South-North Water Transfer Project (China)
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A novel comprehensive risk assessment method for sudden water accidents in the Middle Route of the South-North Water Transfer Project (China)

机译：南水北调中线工程突发性水事故综合风险评估新方法（中国）

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摘要

The Middle Route of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China consists of a long open canal and complex hydraulic structures. It provides drinking water for Beijing, Shijiazhuang, and other cities under extremely strict water quality requirements. In the recent decades, water pollution accidents have frequently occurred in water transfer projects. Scientific and effective risk assessment is needed to assess the impact on the overall emergency management, which should be considered to incorporate social, economic, and environmental issues in the timely response to and management of emergencies. In this study, we combine the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response model, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and coordinated development degree model into a comprehensive risk assessment tool. This new approach was tested on an emergency drilling simulation related to a sudden MRP water pollution accident in 2016. Based on the combined integration weight ranking, "water delivery status," "pollution accident characteristics," "town size," and "public satisfaction" play prominent roles in the risk assessment. Especially, "town size" is identified as the most important influent factor. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response model index system and comprehensive risk assessment method can be used to evaluate accidents more scientifically and versatile, which helps managers or experts to make faster and more efficient decisions. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：中国南水北调中线由一条长长的运河和复杂的水力结构组成。它以极其严格的水质要求为北京，石家庄和其他城市提供饮用水。近几十年来，调水工程中经常发生水污染事故。需要进行科学有效的风险评估，以评估其对整体应急管理的影响，应将其纳入社会，经济和环境问题，以便及时应对和管理突发事件。在这项研究中，我们将驱动程序-压力-状态-冲击-响应模型，模糊综合评估方法和协调发展度模型组合成一个综合的风险评估工具。在2016年与MRP突然发生水污染事故有关的紧急钻探模拟中测试了此新方法。基于综合权重排序，“供水状况”，“污染事故特征”，“城镇规模”和“公众满意度” ”在风险评估中扮演重要角色。特别是，“城镇规模”被确定为最重要的影响因素。驾驶员-压力-状态-冲击-反应模型指标体系和全面的风险评估方法可以更科学，更通用地评估事故，从而帮助管理人员或专家做出更快，更有效的决策。 （C）2019 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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