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首页> 外文期刊>The Science of the Total Environment >Evaluating the influence of physical, economic and managerial factors on sheet erosion in rangelands of SW Spain by performing a sensitivity analysis on an integrated dynamic model
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Evaluating the influence of physical, economic and managerial factors on sheet erosion in rangelands of SW Spain by performing a sensitivity analysis on an integrated dynamic model

机译：通过对综合动力模型进行敏感性分析，评估物理，经济和管理因素对西班牙西南牧场地表侵蚀的影响

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摘要

An integrated dynamic model was used to evaluate the influence of climatic soil, pastoral, economic and managerial factors on sheet erosion in rangelands of SW Spain (dehesas). This was achieved by means of a variance-based sensitivity analysis. Topsoil erodibility, climate change and a combined factor related to soil water storage capacity and the pasture production function were the factors which influenced water erosion the most Of them, climate change is the main source of uncertainty, though in this study it caused a reduction in the mean and the variance of long-term erosion rates. The economic and managerial factors showed scant influence on soil erosion, meaning that it is unlikely to find such influence in the study area for the time being. This is because the low profitability of the livestock business maintains stocking rates at low levels. However, the potential impact of livestock, through which economic and managerial factors affect soil erosion, proved to be greater in absolute value than the impact of climate change. Therefore, if changes in some economic or managerial factors led to higher stocking rates in the future, significant increases in erosion rates would be expected.
机译：一个综合的动力学模型被用来评估西班牙西南牧场（德黑萨）的气候土壤，牧区，经济和管理因素对表层侵蚀的影响。这是通过基于方差的敏感性分析实现的。表土的易蚀性，气候变化以及与土壤蓄水能力和牧草生产功能有关的综合因素是影响水蚀的最大因素，其中气候变化是不确定性的主要来源，尽管在这项研究中气候变化导致了减少。长期侵蚀率的平均值和方差。经济和管理因素对土壤侵蚀的影响很小，这意味着暂时不可能在研究区域中发现这种影响。这是因为畜牧业的低利润率使库存率保持在较低水平。但是，事实证明，通过经济和管理因素影响水土流失的牲畜的潜在影响，其绝对价值大于气候变化的影响。因此，如果将来某些经济或管理因素的变化导致更高的库存率，那么预计侵蚀率将大大提高。

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