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Quantitative evaluation of lake eutrophication responses under alternative water diversion scenarios: A water quality modeling based statistical analysis approach

机译：替代性调水方案下湖泊富营养化反应的定量评估：一种基于水质模型的统计分析方法

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摘要

China is confronting the challenge of accelerated lake eutrophication, where Lake Dianchi is considered as the most serious one. Eutrophication control for Lake Dianchi began in the mid-1980s. However, decision makers have been puzzled by the lack of visible water quality response to past efforts given the tremendous investment. Therefore, decision makers desperately need a scientifically sound way to quantitatively evaluate the response of lake water quality to proposed management measures and engineering works. We used a water quality modeling based scenario analysis approach to quantitatively evaluate the eutrophication responses of Lake Dianchi to an under-construction water diversion project. The primary analytic framework was built on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic, nutrient fate and transport, as well as algae dynamics model, which has previously been calibrated and validated using historical data. We designed 16 scenarios to analyze the water quality effects of three driving forces, including watershed nutrient loading, variations in diverted inflow water, and lake water level. A two-step statistical analysis consisting of an orthogonal test analysis and linear regression was then conducted to distinguish the contributions of various driving forces to lake water quality. The analysis results show that (a) the different ways of managing the diversion projects would result in different water quality response in Lake Dianchi, though the differences do not appear to be significant; (b) the maximum reduction in annual average and peak Chl-a concentration from the various ways of diversion project operation are respectively 11% and 5%; (c) a combined 66% watershed load reduction and water diversion can eliminate the lake hyp-oxia volume percentage from the existing 6.82% to 3.00%; and (d) the water diversion will decrease the occurrence of algal blooms, and the effect of algae reduction can be enhanced if diverted water are seasonally allocated such that wet season has more flows.
机译：中国正面临着湖泊富营养化加速的挑战，其中滇池被认为是最严重的湖泊。滇池的富营养化控制始于1980年代中期。然而，由于巨额投资，决策者对过去的努力缺乏可见的水质反应感到困惑。因此，决策者迫切需要一种科学合理的方法来定量评估湖泊水质对拟议的管理措施和工程工作的响应。我们使用了基于水质模型的情景分析方法来定量评估滇池对建设中的引水工程的富营养化响应。主要的分析框架建立在三维水动力，营养物命运和运输以及藻类动力学模型的基础上，该模型先前已使用历史数据进行过校准和验证。我们设计了16个方案来分析三种驱动力对水质的影响，包括分水岭的养分含量，分流的入水量变化和湖泊水位。然后进行了由正交检验分析和线性回归组成的两步​​统计分析，以区分各种驱动力对湖泊水质的贡献。分析结果表明：（a）滇池调水工程的不同管理方式将导致不同的水质响应，尽管差异似乎并不明显； （b）各种转移项目运营方式的年平均浓度和最高Chla浓度的最大降低分别为11％和5％； （c）减少66％的分水岭负荷和调水可以将湖泊低氧量的百分比从现有的6.82％减少到3.00％； （d）调水将减少藻华的发生，并且如果按季节分配转向水以使雨季有更多流量，则藻类减少的效果会增强。

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  • 来源
    《Science of the total environment》 |2014年第15期|219-227|共9页
  • 作者

    Yong Liu; Yilin Wang; Hu Sheng; Feifei Dong; Rui Zou; Lei Zhao; Huaicheng Guo; Xiang Zhu; Bin He;

  • 作者单位

    College of Environmental Science and Engineering, The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    College of Environmental Science and Engineering, The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    College of Environmental Science and Engineering, The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    College of Environmental Science and Engineering, The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    Tetra Tech, Inc. 10306 Eaton Place, Ste 340, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA;

    Yunnan Key Laboratory of Pollution Process and Management of Plateau Lake-Watershed, Kunming 650034, China;

    College of Environmental Science and Engineering, The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    Yunan Environmental Monitoring Center, Kunming 650034, China;

    Yunnan Key Laboratory of Pollution Process and Management of Plateau Lake-Watershed, Kunming 650034, China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Eutrophication response; Water diversion; Scenario analysis; Orthogonal test; Linear regression; Lake Dianchi;

    机译：富营养化反应;引水;情景分析;正交试验线性回归;滇池;

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