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首页> 外文期刊>The Science of the Total Environment >Modeling regional sustainable development scenarios using the Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupler: Case study of Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China
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Modeling regional sustainable development scenarios using the Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupler: Case study of Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China

机译：使用城市化和生态环境耦合器建模区域可持续发展情景：北京 - 河北城市集中案例研究

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China's rapid urbanization has produced problems of excessive resource use and environmental pollution, threatening the country's sustainable development. Previous studies mainly focused on empirical observation of the interactions between urbanization and the eco-environment, mainly using econometric models which lacked detailed explanations of the coupling mechanisms between various elements. No quantitative models have been developed to describe the complex nonlinear relationships between various elements, so our understanding of urbanization and eco-environment coupling is vague, and therefore not conducive to coordinating the relationship between them. Coupling urbanization with the eco-environment allows us to simulate interactions between them and enables us to explore the most suitable scenarios for sustainable development. We designed and developed the Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupler (UEC) using system dynamics to simulate regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling and to compare different sustainable development scenarios. UEC integrates human and natural elements. It includes four urbanization submodels (the economy, society, population and construction land) and five eco-environment submodels (water, arable land, ecology, pollution and energy). UEC can fully represent the nonlinear interactions between these submodels by identifying feedback linkages. This allows us to identify an optimal sustainable regional development pattern. We chose the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study research area and obtained the following results: (1) prioritizing urbanization will accelerate economic growth and increase pollution emissions whereas prioritizing the eco-environment will negatively affect both total population and arable land; (2) when sufficient policy and technical support is directed to a particular area, urbanization may not further degrade the ecoenvironment; and (3) simulation results for various scenarios show that the key to guaranteeing sustainable development is improving technical and political support rather than further restricting urbanization. The UEC model is a significant aid to improving sustainable regional planning. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：中国的快速城市化产生了过度资源利用和环境污染的问题，威胁到该国的可持续发展。以前的研究主要集中在城市化与生态环境之间的相互作用的实证观察，主要使用经济学模型，这些模型缺乏各种元件之间的耦合机制的详细解释。没有开发定量模型来描述各种元素之间的复杂非线性关系，因此我们对城市化和生态环境耦合的理解是模糊的，因此不利于协调它们之间的关系。与生态环境的耦合城市化使我们能够模拟它们之间的相互作用，使我们能够探索可持续发展最适合的情景。我们使用系统动态设计和开发了城市化和生态环境耦合器（UEC），以模拟区域城市化和生态环境耦合，并比较不同的可持续发展方案。 UEC整合了人类和自然元素。它包括四个城市化潜水基（经济，社会，人口和建筑用地）和五个生态环境亚模型（水，耕地，生态，污染和能源）。 UEC可以通过识别反馈联系来完全代表这些子模沟之间的非线性相互作用。这使我们能够识别最佳的可持续区域发展模式。我们选择了京津 - 河北城市群作为案例研究研究区，并获得以下结果：（1）优先城市化将加速经济增长和增加污染排放，而优先考虑生态环境将对总人口和耕地产生负面影响; （2）当足够的政策和技术支持指向特定地区时，城市化可能不会进一步降低生态环境; （3）各种情景的仿真结果表明，保证可持续发展的关键正在提高技术和政治支持，而不是进一步限制城市化。 UEC模型是改善可持续区域规划的重要援助。 （c）2019 Elsevier B.v.保留所有权利。

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