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The nonlinear effect of population aging on carbon emission-Empirical analysis of ten selected provinces in China

机译：人口老龄化对中国十个选定省份碳排放 - 碳排放实证分析的非线性效应

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摘要

Existing related researches have focused on the linear relationship between population aging and carbon emissions, which easily lead to partial understanding of the effect of population aging on carbon emissions. In order to more comprehension of the effect of population aging on carbon emissions, this study explores the nonlinear relationship between population aging and carbon emission through empirical analysis often selected provinces in China from 2000 to 2016 using the panel threshold model. In the proposed panel threshold model, carbon emission is set as the explained variable, population aging is set as the core explanatory variable, the levels of population aging and trade openness are set as threshold variables, the levels of economic development, energy consumption structure, industrial structure, and technological innovation are set as the controlling variables, respectively. The results show that population aging has a threshold effect on curbing carbon emission. The levels of population aging and trade openness are two key factors that affect the relationship between population aging and carbon emission. Whether the level of popultion aging is lower or higher than the threshold value of 0.12937, the population aging has a negative coefficient on carbon emissions. Moreover, the higher the level of population aging, the greater the offsetting effect of population aging on carbon emission. When the level of trade openness is below the threshold value of 0.30990, the effect of population aging on carbon emission is negligible. When the level of trade openness is higher than the threshold value of 0.30990, the offesetting effect of population aging on carbon emission begins to appear. In other words, population aging has an offsetting effect on carbon emission when trade openness is in relatively high level, whereas the offsetting effect disappears when trade openness is lower than threshold value.
机译：现有的相关研究专注于人口老化和碳排放之间的线性关系，这很容易导致部分了解人口老化对碳排放的影响。为了更加理解人口老龄化对碳排放的影响，本研究探讨了通过经验分析的人口老化和碳排放之间的非线性关系，其使用面板门槛模型从2000年到2016年选定了中国省份。在所提出的面板阈值模型中，将碳排放设定为解释的变量，人口老化被设定为核心解释变量，人口老化和贸易开放的水平被设定为阈值变量，经济发展水平，能源消耗结构，产业结构和技术创新分别被设定为控制变量。结果表明，人口老化对遏制碳排放具有阈值影响。人口老龄化和贸易开放程度是影响人口老龄化与碳排放之间关系的两个关键因素。伙计衰老水平是否较低或高于0.12937的阈值，人口老龄化对碳排放量产生负系数。此外，人口老化水平越高，人口老化对碳排放的偏移效果越大。当贸易开放水平低于阈值0.30990时，人口老化对碳排放的影响可忽略不计。当贸易开放程度高于0.30990的阈值时，人口老化对碳排放的离心效果开始出现。换句话说，当贸易开放处于相对较高的级别时，人口老龄化对碳排放产生抵消影响，而贸易开放性低于阈值时，偏移效果会消失。

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  • 来源
    《The Science of the Total Environment》 |2020年第20期|140057.1-140057.12|共12页
  • 作者

    Ting Yang; Qiang Wang;

  • 作者单位

    School of Economics and Management China University of Petroleum (East China) Qingdao Shandong 266580 People's Republic of China;

    School of Economics and Management China University of Petroleum (East China) Qingdao Shandong 266580 People's Republic of China Institute for Energy Economics and Policy China University of Petroleum (East China) Qingdao Shandong 266580 People's Republic of China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Carbon emissions; Aging; Panel threshold model; Opening up; China;

    机译：碳排放量;老化;面板阈值模型;开放;中国;

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