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Modeling transient response of forests to climate change

机译：模拟森林对气候变化的瞬态响应

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Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "A1B" storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.
机译：我们的假设是，田纳西州森林的主要生命形式的高度多样性传达了抵御气候变化等干扰的能力。由于气候变化及其影响的不确定性，我们使用了三种通用循环模型（GCM）得出的2030年和2080年的三种气候变化情景，以模拟该州的一系列潜在气候条件。这些气候变化源于政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的“ A1B”故事情节，该故事情节假设全球经济快速增长。利用1980年至1997年全州每1 km单元的温度和降水的月度记录，汇总到三个省份，三个GCM对2030年和2080年的降水和温度预测与五个生态省的变化有关。预计到2030年和2080年，所有三个GCM的所有生态省的温度都会在所有月份升高。与长期平均水平相比，降水差异更加复杂，但引人注目。森林生态系统模型LINKAGES被用来模拟1989年至2300年五个生态省的状况。田纳西州所有生态省的平均产出项目的树木多样性和物种组成变化最大，而南部混交林省的变化最大。预计树木总生物量会下降，然后随着林分中物种的替换而恢复生物量。南部混交林省的优势树多样性较其他四个省的预测少，总生物量也较低。这项研究中预测的生物量和组成变化与没有气候变化的森林动态有所不同。这些结果表明，气候变化后生物量的恢复与美国东南森林的主要树木多样性有关。这种观察的普遍性值得进一步研究，因为它涉及森林管理可能影响气候变化影响的方式。

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