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首页> 外文期刊>The Science of the Total Environment >Burdens of mercury in residents of Temirtau, Kazakhstan II: Verification of methodologies for estimating human exposure to high levels of Hg pollution in the environment
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Burdens of mercury in residents of Temirtau, Kazakhstan II: Verification of methodologies for estimating human exposure to high levels of Hg pollution in the environment

机译：哈萨克斯坦蒂米尔陶居民的汞负担II：验证估计人类暴露于环境中高水平汞污染的方法的方法

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摘要

A considerable amount of work has been conducted developing exposure estimate models for quantitative evaluation of mercury (Hg) intake and human health risks, but few have assessed the applicability and the validity for evaluating the risks posed by Hg in the environment and have achieved very mixed results. The present study focused on verifying estimated daily Hg intake using exposure equations with either the deterministic or probabilistic (the Monte Carlo) approaches. The simulated daily Hg intake doses were compared with those established from measured Hg concentrations in the hair of 289 participants. The results showed that the single-value deterministic method for simulating Hg exposure levels overestimated the level of risk by a factor of 1.5 when compared with the highest concentration of Hg observed in the hair of the study population. Contrarily, the average daily Hg intake doses simulated using the probabilistic simulation were similar in distribution to the biomarker data. When the reference dose (RfD) of 0.1 ug/ kg body weight/day was adopted as the acceptable dose for daily intake rate, there were approximately 19% estimated to have potential Hg exposure risks based on the Monte Carlo simulation. This percentage was favourably similar to the 17% determined from Hg concentrations in the hair samples. The difference between the probabilistic simulation and the data derived from hair Hg levels was considered mainly due to the uncertainties in unconfirmed questionnaire-based survey data, small sampling sizes and the surrogates used in the exposure models. The findings implied that the existing exposure models together with the probabilistic approach were appropriate for research of human exposure to Hg.
机译：已经开展了大量工作来开发用于估计汞（Hg）摄入量和人类健康风险的暴露估算模型，但是很少有人评估汞在环境中的风险评估的适用性和有效性，并且取得了很大的成就结果。本研究的重点是使用确定性或概率性（蒙特卡洛）方法，采用暴露方程来验证估计的每日汞摄入量。将模拟的每日Hg摄入量与从289名参与者的头发中测得的Hg浓度确定的剂量进行比较。结果表明，与在研究人群的头发中观察到的最高Hg浓度相比，用于模拟Hg暴露水平的单值确定性方法将风险水平高估了1.5倍。相反，使用概率模拟模拟的平均每日汞摄入剂量与生物标记数据的分布相似。当采用0.1 ug / kg体重/天的参考剂量（RfD）作为每日摄入量的可接受剂量时，根据蒙特卡洛模拟，大约有19％的人有潜在的汞暴露风险。该百分比有利地类似于从毛发样品中的汞浓度确定的17％。认为概率模拟与从头发Hg水平得出的数据之间的差异主要是由于不确定的基于问卷的调查数据的不确定性，较小的抽样规模以及暴露模型中使用的替代指标所致。研究结果表明，现有的接触模型和概率方法适用于人类接触汞的研究。

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