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首页> 外文期刊>Science of the total environment >Over-parameterised,uncertain 'mathematical Marionettes' -how Can We Best Use Catchment Water Quality Models? An Example Of An 80-year Catchment-scale Nutrient Balance
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Over-parameterised,uncertain 'mathematical Marionettes' -how Can We Best Use Catchment Water Quality Models? An Example Of An 80-year Catchment-scale Nutrient Balance

机译：参数过大，不确定的“数学木偶”-我们如何才能最好地利用流域水质模型？ 80年流域规模养分平衡的一个例子

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The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn,a Chalk river-system in southern England.The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested.This is the first time a semi-distributed,daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s.Thus,this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour.The mass-balance results from 1921,1922,1991,2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export.The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty.The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport.Between 1922 and 2002,increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser,livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922,to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil,groundwater and instream biota in 2002.In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha~(-1) yr~(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream.The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed.
机译：将氮综合集水模型（INCA-N）应用于英格兰南部的粉笔河系Lambourn河，该模型具有模拟1920-2003年观测到的溪流水中硝酸盐浓度的长期趋势和季节模式的能力。这是第一次使用半分布式的每日时间步长模型来模拟如此长的时间段，然后用于计算详细的流域养分预算，这些预算涵盖了1930年代末到20世纪90年代末牧场到耕地的转化。 1940年代。因此，这项工作超出了源分配的范围，并试图证明如何使用这种模拟方法来评估流域的状态并加深对系统行为的理解。质量平衡的结果来自1921、1922、1991、2001和2002给出了1991年的数据，并将其与其他模型化和与氮素土壤过程和出口相关的载荷的文献值进行了比较。变化突出了比较模型化FL的问题具有点测量的辅助功能，但事实证明可用于识别最难理解的输入和过程，从而提供输入数据评估和模型结构不确定性的模型。建模的陆地和河流质量平衡也突显了水文条件在污染物运输中的重要性.1922年之间和2002年，肥料，牲畜和沉积物氮的输入增加，改变了氮的平衡，从1922年土壤肥力可能降低，但对环境的影响很小，转变为2002年土壤，地下水和上游生物区中氮的积累状况。在1922年和2002年，据估计分别从陆地向河流出口了2和18 kg N ha〜（-1）yr〜（-1）。模型进行了讨论。

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