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首页> 外文期刊>Science of the total environment >Modelling and validation of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants on climate change scenarios: An approach from the regeneration niche
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Modelling and validation of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants on climate change scenarios: An approach from the regeneration niche

机译：适宜栖息地空间分布对气候变化情景招募的适当栖息地的建模与验证：从再生利基的一种方法

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摘要

The regeneration niche concept states that plant species only occur in habitats where the environmental conditions allow their recruitment. This study focuses on this concept and proposes a novel approach for modelling and experimentally validating the distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants under the current and future climate. The biological invasion of the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle) in Mexico is used as practical example. The values of eight bioclimatic variables associated to sites in which young, naturally established seedlings and saplings were detected were used to model the current distribution of recruitment habitats. A machine-learning algorithm of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to calibrate the model and its output indicated the distribution of occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees in Mexico under the current climate. This model was projected on climate change scenarios predicted for the middle of this century, which indicated that the cover of suitable recruitment habitats for this invasive species will shrink. To validate these predictions, field experiments were performed at three sites where the model predicted reduced occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees. In these experiments, emergence and survival rates of peppertree seedlings were assessed under the current climate and under simulated climate change conditions. As seedling emergence and survival rates were lower under simulated climate change conditions, the experiments validated the model predictions. These results supported our proposal, which combines modelling and experimental approaches to make accurate and valid predictions about the distribution of suitable recruitment habitats for invasive plants in a warmer and drier world.
机译：再生生态位概念指出，植物物种只发生在那里的栖息地的环境条件允许他们的招聘。本研究着重于这一概念，并提出了造型与当前和未来的气候下，实验验证合适的栖息地分布入侵植物招募的新方法。在墨西哥秘鲁花椒（肖乳香属MOLLE）的生物入侵被用作实际的例子。关联到该检测年轻，自然地建立了幼苗幼树网站8个生物气候变量的值被用来招募栖息地的电流分布模型。 （最大墒）最大熵的机器学习算法被用于校准模型和当前气候下其输出表示在墨西哥年轻peppertrees的发生概率的分布。该模型预计在预测本世纪中叶，这表明适当的招聘栖息地的这种入侵物种盖会缩小气候变化情景。为了验证这些预测，田间试验，在那里模型预测年轻peppertrees的降低发生概率三个地点进行。在这些实验中，花椒苗的出现率和存活率当前的气候下和模拟气候变化的条件下进行了评估。由于出苗率和成活率分别为模拟气候变化的条件下越低，实验验证的模型预测。这些结果支持了我们的建议，它结合了模拟和实验的方法，使有关适当招募栖息在温暖，干旱世界上分布入侵植物准确和有效的预测。

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  • 来源
    《Science of the total environment》 |2021年第10期|146007.1-146007.12|共12页
  • 作者

    Francisco A. Guerra-Coss; Ernesto I. Badano; Isaac E. Cedillo-Rodriguez; Jorge E. Ramirez-Albores; Joel Flores; Felipe Barragan-Torres; Jorge A. Flores-Cano;

  • 作者单位

    IPICYT/Division de Ciencias Ambientales Instituto Potosino de Investigacion Cientificay Tecnologica Camino a la Presa San Jose 2055 Colonia Lomas 4'Seccion 78216 San Luis Potosi SLP Mexico;

    IPICYT/Division de Ciencias Ambientales Instituto Potosino de Investigacion Cientificay Tecnologica Camino a la Presa San Jose 2055 Colonia Lomas 4'Seccion 78216 San Luis Potosi SLP Mexico;

    Facultad de Ciencias Forestales Universidad Juarez del Estado de Durango Rio Papaloapan y Boulevard Durango s/n Colonia Valle del Sur 34120 Durango DGO Mexico;

    Instituto de Ciencias Agropecuarias y Rurales Universidad Autonoma del Estado de Mexico El Cerrillo-Piedras Blancas 50200 Toluca de Lerdo MEX Mexico;

    IPICYT/Division de Ciencias Ambientales Instituto Potosino de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica Camino a la Presa San Jose 2055 Colonia Lomas 4'Seccion 78216 San Luis Potosi SLP Mexico;

    CONACYT-IPICYT/Division de Ciencias Ambientales Instituto Potosino de Investigacion Cientificay Tecnoldgica Camino a la Presa San Jose 2055 Colonia Lomas 4' Seccion 78216 San Luis Potosi SLP Mexico;

    Facultad de Agronomiay Veterinaria Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi Km. 14.5 Carretera San Luis-Matehuala Soledad de Graciano Sanchez 78321 SLP Mexico;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Biological invasions; Habitat suitability models; MaxEnt; Peruvian peppertree; Open-top chambers; Rainout shelters;

    机译：生物侵犯;栖息地适用性模型;maxint;秘鲁辣椒;敞篷腔室;雨水避难所;

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