...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Science of the total environment >Appraising climate change impacts on future water resources and agricultural productivity in agro-urban river basins
【24h】

Appraising climate change impacts on future water resources and agricultural productivity in agro-urban river basins

机译：评估气候变化对农业城市河流流域未来水资源和农业生产力的影响

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Climate change can have an adverse effect on agricultural productivity and water availability in semi-arid regions, as changes in surface water availability lead to groundwater depletion and resultant losses in crop yield. These inter-relationships necessitate an integrated management approach for surface water, groundwater, and crop yield as a holistic system. This study quantifies the future availability of surface water and groundwater and as-sociated crop production in a large semi-arid agro-urban river basin in which agricultural irrigation is a leader consumer of water. The region of study is the South Platte River Basin (72,000 km~2), Colorado, USA. The coupled SWAT-M0DFL0W modeling code is used as the hydrologic simulator and forced with five different CMIP5 cli-mate models downscaled by Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), each for two climate scenarios, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for 1980-2100. The hydrologic model accounts for surface runoff, soil lateral flow, ground-water flow, groundwater-surface water interactions, irrigation from surface water and groundwater, and crop yield on a per-field basis. In all climate models and emission scenarios, an increase of 3 to 5 °C in annual average temperature is projected. Whereas, variation in the projected precipitation depends on topography and distances from mountains. Based on the results of this study, the worst-case climate model in the basin is IPSL-CM5A-MR-8.5. Under this climate scenario, for a 1 °C increase in temperature and the 1.3% reduction in annual precipitation, the basin will experience an 8.5% decrease in stream discharge, 2-5% decline in groundwater storage, and 11% reduction in crop yield. These results indicate the significant effect of climate change on water and food resources of a large river basin, pointing to the need for immediate implementation of conservation practices.
机译：气候变化可能对半干旱地区的农业生产力和水可用性产生不利影响，因为地表水可用性的变化导致地下水耗尽和作物产量损失。这些相互关系需要将地面水，地下水和作物产量作为整体系统的综合管理方法。本研究量化了在大型半干旱农业城市河流流域的地表水和地下水的未来可用性，农业灌溉是一种领导者消费者。研究地区是南普拉特河流域（72,000公里〜2），科罗拉多州，美国。耦合的SWAT-M0DFL0W建模代码用作水文模拟器，用五种不同的CMIP5 CLI-MATE模型，由多变量自适应构造的类似物（MACA）缩小，每个模拟（MACA），每个气候情景，RCP4.5和RCP8.5，为1980年-2100。水文模型占地表径流，土壤横向流动，地下水，地下水位水相互作用，地表水和地下水的灌溉，以及各自场的作物产量。在所有气候模型和发射场景中，预计年平均气温的增加3到5°C。虽然，预计降水的变化取决于山脉的地形和距离。基于本研究的结果，盆地中最坏情况的气候模型是IPSL-CM5A-MR-8.5。在这种气候情景下，温度增加1°C和年降水量减少1.3％，流域将经历8.5％的流放电减少，地下水储存下降2-5％，作物产量减少了11％ 。这些结果表明了气候变化对大型河流流域水和食品资源的显着影响，指出需要立即实施保护实践的需求。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号