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Dynamic reliability analysis for residual life assessment of corroded subsea pipelines

机译:腐蚀海底管道剩余寿命评估的动态可靠性分析

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摘要

Failure threats in subsea pipelines are hard to inspect, but parameters influencing them are easier to observe. Hence, nowadays, Bayesian network models became more relevant, as the model can be updated with the sparse observations while considering the underlying uncertainty. This holds for failure threat assessment of subsea pipelines, specifically for a highly random corrosion mechanism, which has not been captured in the current traditional assessments appropriately. However, a number of researchers stated that it is difficult to build the Conditional Probability Table (CPT) of the Bayesian networks. In such cases, it has been suggested to employ expert knowledge to determine the conditional probability distributions, which involves some uncertainties and high data deviation. This paper focusses on developing a dynamic Bayesian network-based framework to minimise the inputs from the expert domain in the CPT development, while providing an efficient option to analyse the pipeline residual life due to corrosion threat.
机译:海底管道的失败威胁很难检查,但影响它们的参数更容易观察。因此,如今,贝叶斯网络模型变得更加相关,因为在考虑潜在的不确定性的同时,可以使用稀疏观测更新模型。这对海底管道的失败威胁评估持有,专门用于高随机的腐蚀机制,该机制尚未适当地在当前的传统评估中被捕获。然而,许多研究人员表示,难以构建贝叶斯网络的条件概率表(CPT)。在这种情况下,有人建议采用专家知识来确定条件概率分布,这涉及一些不确定性和高数据偏差。本文重点关注开发动态贝叶斯网络的框架,以最大限度地减少CPT开发中专家领域的输入,同时提供有效的选择,以分析由于腐蚀威胁而分析管道残余寿命。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Ships and offshore structures》 |2021年第4期|410-422|共13页
  • 作者单位

    School of Engineering Lloyd's Register Foundation (LRF) Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK;

    School of Engineering Lloyd's Register Foundation (LRF) Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK;

    School of Engineering Lloyd's Register Foundation (LRF) Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Bayesian network; subsea pipelines; dynamic reliability; life extension;

    机译:贝叶斯网络;海底管道;动态可靠性;生命延伸;

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