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Implementing comprehensive offender behaviour in a realistic agent-based model of burglary

机译：在现实的基于代理的入室盗窃模型中实施全面的犯罪行为

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摘要

Explaining and modelling crime patterns is an exercise that has taxed policy-makers, criminologists, social reformers and the police ever since the first crime patterns were recorded. Crime is a particularly difficult phenomenon to model because of its inherent complexity; crime patterns are built up from a multitude of human-human and human-environment micro-interactions that ultimately lead to individual crime events. Commonly used modelling techniques, such as regression, struggle to fully account for the dynamics of the crime system. They work at aggregate scales thereby disregarding important individual-level variation and also struggle to account for the effects of different types of human behaviour. Furthermore, important concepts from environmental criminology - such as individual offender awareness spaces or heterogeneity in offender decision-making - cannot be included directly when working at a resolution above that of the individual. This research addresses the drawbacks associated with traditional mathematical crime models by building an agent-based simulation with a unique offender behavioural model. Through use of the PECS framework for modelling human behaviour, agents are endowed with needs and motives that drive their behaviour and ultimately lead to the commission of crime. As the model uses real-world environmental data, it can be used to make predictions in existing cities. The paper demonstrates that use of this framework, in combination with an agent-based model, can replicate patterns and trends that are supported by the current theoretical understanding of offending behaviour.
机译：自记录第一种犯罪模式以来，对犯罪模式进行解释和建模是一项使决策者，犯罪学家，社会改革者和警察感到不满的工作。犯罪因其固有的复杂性而很难建模。犯罪模式是由众多人类与人类和人类与环境的微观互动建立的，最终导致个人犯罪事件。常用的建模技术（例如回归）难以充分说明犯罪系统的动态。他们以总体规模工作，因此忽略了重要的个人层面的差异，并且还难以解释不同类型的人类行为的影响。此外，在以高于个人的分辨率进行工作时，不能直接包括环境犯罪学的重要概念，例如个人罪犯的意识空间或罪犯决策中的异质性。这项研究通过建立具有独特犯罪行为模型的基于主体的模拟，解决了与传统数学犯罪模型相关的弊端。通过使用PECS框架对人类行为进行建模，特工被赋予了驱动其行为并最终导致犯罪的需求和动机。由于该模型使用现实世界的环境数据，因此可用于在现有城市中进行预测。本文表明，结合使用基于代理的模型，此框架的使用可以复制当前对犯罪行为的理论理解所支持的模式和趋势。

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  • 来源
    《Simulation》 |2012年第1期|p.50-71|共22页
  • 作者

    Nick Malleson; Linda See; Andy Evans; Alison Heppenstall;

  • 作者单位

    School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK;

    School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK;

    School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK;

    School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    agent-based modelling; crime; human behaviour; simulation;

    机译：基于主体的建模;犯罪;人类行为;模拟;

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