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首页> 外文期刊>The Singapore economic review >ONE APPROACH TO RESOLVE THE EXCHANGE RATE PUZZLE: RESULTS USING DATA FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE UNITED STATES
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ONE APPROACH TO RESOLVE THE EXCHANGE RATE PUZZLE: RESULTS USING DATA FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE UNITED STATES

机译：解决汇率难题的一种方法：使用来自美国和美国的数据得出的结果

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摘要

We approach a significant research topic in international economics by restating the test procedures in a novel manner consistent with monetary theorems with controls using monetary variables and applying an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects of exchange rate behavior. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect Nominal Exchange Rate (NER)? (ii) Do relative interest rates between countries affect a country's exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The data series for this study are taken over 55 years covering pre-and-post-Bretton Woods era: a second test was done over the post-Bretton Woods period only using 30 years of data. Also, the traditional factors of parity conditions are extended in this research to take into account recently theorized and tested non-parity factors related to cash flows. The resulting evidence affirms clearly that both the parity factors (prices and interest rates) and the non-parity factors affect exchange rates significantly over the long run, also over the 30-year period. In our view, these findings extend our knowledge of how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems.
机译：我们以一种新颖的方式重述了测试程序，该程序与使用货币变量进行控制的货币定理相一致，并应用适当的计量经济学方法来重新检验汇率行为的三个方面，从而在国际经济学中取得了重要的研究课题。 （i）通胀（价格）因素是否影响名义汇率（NER）？ （ii）国家之间的相对利率是否会影响一国的汇率？ （iii）如果在测试中嵌入了非平价因素的控制，价格和利率效应是否成立？该研究的数据系列采用了布雷顿森林体系前后的55年时间：仅使用30年的数据就在布雷顿森林体系之后进行了第二次检验。同样，在本研究中扩展了平价条件的传统因素，以考虑到最近理论化和检验的与现金流量相关的非平价因素。由此产生的证据清楚地表明，从长远来看，在30年期间，均等因素（价格和利率）和非均等因素都对汇率产生重大影响。我们认为，这些发现扩展了我们对货币行为与平价和非平价定理如何一致的认识。

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