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首页> 外文期刊>The Singapore economic review >(DE)STABILIZING EXCHANGE RATE STRATEGIES IN EAST ASIAN MONETARY AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
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(DE)STABILIZING EXCHANGE RATE STRATEGIES IN EAST ASIAN MONETARY AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

机译：（DE）稳定东亚货币和经济一体化中的汇率策略

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The East Asian monetary integration process is at the crossroads. Given very benign liquidity conditions in the US, the prevailing common US dollar peg has contributed to growing macroeconomic and financial instability in the region. This has sparked demands to embark on an independent monetary integration process in East Asia. The paper shows that, however, neither the Japanese yen nor the Chinese yuan can challenge the US dollar as anchor currency in the region. Large fluctuations of the Japanese yen against the US dollar have undermined the potential of the Japanese yen to become a regional anchor currency. Exchange rate stability of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has enhanced intra-regional exchange rate stability and growth, stressing the potential of the Chinese yuan to emerge as a regional anchor currency. Yet, it is shown that underdeveloped Chinese capital markets and financial repression originating in US low interest rate policies constitute an insurmountable impediment for the Chinese yuan to gain anchor currency status in East Asia. Empirical estimations provide evidence in favor of positive growth effects of the exchange rate stability against the US dollar in East Asia.
机译：东亚货币一体化进程正处于十字路口。鉴于美国的流动性状况非常良好，普遍存在的美元钉住汇率制加剧了该地区的宏观经济和金融动荡。这引发了要求在东亚进行独立的货币一体化进程的要求。但是，本文显示，日元和人民币都无法挑战美元作为该地区的主要货币。日元兑美元的大幅波动削弱了日元成为区域锚定货币的潜力。人民币兑美元的汇率稳定增强了区域内汇率的稳定性和增长，强调了人民币成为区域锚货币的潜力。然而，事实证明，中国资本市场的欠发达和源自美国低利率政策的金融抑制，构成了人民币在东亚获得锚定货币地位的不可逾越的障碍。实证估计为东亚汇率稳定对美元的积极增长效应提供了证据。

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