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首页> 外文期刊>The Singapore economic review >ECONOMIC GROWTH OF SELECTED EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES: A MACROECONOMIC VIEW OF THEIR DEPENDENCE ON THE US AND EUROPE
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ECONOMIC GROWTH OF SELECTED EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES: A MACROECONOMIC VIEW OF THEIR DEPENDENCE ON THE US AND EUROPE

机译：某些东亚国家的经济增长：宏观经济观对其与美国和欧洲的依赖关系

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摘要

This paper aims to ascertain whether direct macroeconomic linkages exist between some East Asian (EA) countries on the one hand and the United States (US) and Europe on the other, based upon quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) series spanning from the early 1990s. Long-run and short-run lead-lag relations are explored within a trivariate modeling framework. Contrary to popular belief, the empirical evidence suggests generally either very nominal or no direct links at all between these EA countries and the US in terms of GDP. Direct links with Europe are completely ruled out. All these would allude to a very limited susceptibility of these EA economies to shocks in the US and Europe, barring a global economic crisis of catastrophic proportions. The growing belief that if China sneezes, the world catches the flu is also not borne out by the empirical results.
机译：本文旨在根据从早期开始的季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）系列，来确定一方面某些东亚（EA）国家与另一方面的美国（US）和欧洲之间是否存在直接的宏观经济联系。 1990年代。在三变量建模框架中探索了长期和短期超前-滞后关系。与普遍的看法相反，经验证据表明，这些EA国家和美国之间的GDP总的来说通常不是非常名义上的联系，就是根本没有直接联系。完全排除了与欧洲的直接联系。所有这些都暗示着这些EA经济体在美国和欧洲遭受冲击的敏感性非常有限，除非发生灾难性的全球性经济危机。越来越多的人认为，如果中国打喷嚏，世界就会感冒，那么经验结果也不能证明这一点。

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