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首页> 外文期刊>Smart Grid, IEEE Transactions on >Probabilistic Risk-Based Security Assessment of Power Systems Considering Incumbent Threats and Uncertainties
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Probabilistic Risk-Based Security Assessment of Power Systems Considering Incumbent Threats and Uncertainties

机译：考虑到威胁和不确定性的基于概率的基于风险的电力系统安全评估

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摘要

In-depth security analyses of power systems (PSs) require to consider the vulnerabilities to natural and human-related threats, which may cause multiple dependent contingencies. On the other hand, such events often lead to high impact on the system, so that decision-making aimed to enhance security may become difficult. Introducing the uncertainty, the risk associated to each contingency can be evaluated, thus allowing to perform effective contingency ranking. This paper describes an in-depth security assessment methodology, based on an “extended” definition of risk (including threats, vulnerability, contingency, and impact) aimed to perform the risk assessment of the integrated power and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems. The results of the application to test cases and realistic PSs show the added value of the proposed approach with respect to conventional security analyses in dealing with uncertainty of threats, vulnerabilities, and system response.
机译：电力系统（PS）的深入安全分析需要考虑对自然和人为威胁的脆弱性，这可能会导致多种相关的突发事件。另一方面，此类事件通常会对系统造成重大影响，因此旨在增强安全性的决策可能会变得困难。通过引入不确定性，可以评估与每个意外事件相关的风险，从而可以执行有效的意外事件排名。本文基于“扩展”的风险定义（包括威胁，脆弱性，偶然性和影响），描述了一种深入的安全评估方法，旨在对集成电源和信息通信技术（ICT）系统进行风险评估。测试用例和现实PS的应用结果表明，相对于常规安全分析，该方法在处理威胁，漏洞和系统响应的不确定性方面具有附加价值。

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