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Modeling and Optimization of Time-of-Use Electricity Pricing Systems

机译:分时电价系统的建模与优化

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摘要

Time-of-use (TOU) pricing is an important strategy for electricity providers to manage supply and make the grid more efficient; as well as for consumers seeking to manage their costs. In this paper, we discuss a general stochastic modeling framework for consumer's power demand based on which TOU contract characteristics can be selected to minimize the mean electricity price paid by the customer. We exploit the characteristics of power demand observed in real grids to model it during homogeneous peak periods as a constant level with fluctuations described by a scaled fractional Brownian motion. We analyze the exceedance process over pre-specified thresholds and use this information to formulate an optimization problem to determine the key features of the TOU contract. Due to the analytical intractability of certain expressions with the exception of short-range dependence fluctuations, the solution of the posited optimization problem requires using techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation and numerical search. The methodology for two pricing schemes is illustrated using real data.
机译:分时定价(TOU)是电力供应商管理供应并提高电网效率的重要策略;以及寻求管理其成本的消费者。在本文中,我们讨论了用于消费者电力需求的通用随机建模框架,在该框架下可以选择TOU合同特征以最大程度地减少客户支付的平均电价。我们利用在真实网格中观察到的电力需求的特征,将其在均匀峰值时段内以恒定水平建模,并具有按比例的分数布朗运动描述的波动。我们分析超出预定阈值的超出过程,并使用此信息来制定优化问题,以确定TOU合同的关键特征。由于除了短程相关性波动之外某些表达式的解析性难处理,因此,需要使用诸如蒙特卡洛模拟和数值搜索之类的技术来解决正定优化问题。使用实际数据说明了两种定价方案的方法。

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