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Approach for parameter estimation in Markov model of software reliability for early prediction: a case study

机译：马尔可夫软件可靠性模型中用于参数预测的参数估计方法：一个案例研究

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摘要

Early prediction of software reliability may be used to evaluate design feasibility, compare design alternatives, identify potential failure areas, trade-off system design factors, track reliability improvements, identify the cost overrun at an early stage and to provide optimal development strategies. Many researchers have proposed different approaches to predict the software reliability based on Markov model but the uncertainty associated with these approaches is to find the transition probabilities in between the two states of the Markov chain. The authors propose an approach to address this problem by modelling the software system through Petri Net, converting it into Markov chain and solving the linear system mathematically. The validation of the proposed approach has also been shown by comparing the predicted reliability, based on predicted transition probability, with computed reliability, based on operational profile of safety critical software of Nuclear Power Plant.
机译：软件可靠性的早期预测可用于评估设计可行性，比较设计备选方案，确定潜在的故障区域，权衡系统设计因素，跟踪可靠性改进，在早期阶段确定成本超支并提供最佳的开发策略。许多研究人员提出了不同的方法来预测基于马尔可夫模型的软件可靠性，但是与这些方法相关的不确定性是要找到马尔可夫链的两个状态之间的转移概率。作者提出了一种通过Petri Net对软件系统进行建模，将其转换为马尔可夫链并通过数学方法求解线性系统来解决此问题的方法。通过将基于预测过渡概率的预测可靠性与基于核电厂安全关键软件的运行概况的计算可靠性进行比较，也表明了所提出方法的有效性。

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