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首页> 外文期刊>Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering >Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment For Romania And Sensitivity Analysis: A Case Of Joint Consideration Of Intermediate-depth (vrancea) And Shallow (crustal) Seismicity
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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment For Romania And Sensitivity Analysis: A Case Of Joint Consideration Of Intermediate-depth (vrancea) And Shallow (crustal) Seismicity

机译：罗马尼亚概率地震危险性评估和敏感性分析：以中深度（vrancea）和浅（地壳）地震共同考虑为例

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摘要

The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the "logic tree" approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.
机译：罗马尼亚的地震危险性是欧洲最高的地震危险，而罗马尼亚近一半领土的地震危险性是由位于南部喀尔巴阡弧下方的Vrancea地震区域确定的。该地区的特点是在70至160 km深度的狭窄震源中发生大地震的几率很高。除Vrancea地区外，罗马尼亚境内外的几个浅层地震活动区也被认为具有地震危险性。我们介绍了概率地震灾害分析的结果，该结果实施了“逻辑树”方法，并同时考虑了中深度和浅度地震活动性。各种可用的地震活动性和地震动衰减模型被用作替代变量。就各种返回期评估了在宏观地震烈度，峰值地面加速度和响应谱方面的地震危险。进行了敏感性研究，以分析输入参数变化对危害结果的影响。通过更好地了解Vrancea震源区和地壳地震活动性区的参数，可以减少危险估计的不确定性。对于罗马尼亚来说，减少与地面运动模型相关的不确定性也是非常重要的问题。

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