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Assessing the impact of ground-motion variability and uncertainty on empirical fragility curves

机译：评估地面运动的变化性和不确定性对经验脆性曲线的影响

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Empirical fragility curves, constructed from databases of thousands of building-damage observations, are commonly used for earthquake risk assessments, particularly in Europe and Japan, where building stocks are often difficult to model analytically (e.g. old masonry structures or timber dwellings). Curves from different studies, however, display considerable differences, which lead to high uncertainty in the assessed seismic risk. One potential reason for this dispersion is the almost universal neglect of the spatial variability in ground motions and the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction. In this paper, databases of building damage are simulated using ground-motion fields that take account of spatial variability and a known fragility curve. These databases are then inverted, applying a standard approach for the derivation of empirical fragility curves, and the difference with the known curve is studied. A parametric analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of various assumptions on the results. By this approach, it is concluded that ground-motion variability leads to flatter fragility curves and that the epistemic uncertainty in the ground-motion prediction equation used can have a dramatic impact on the derived curves. Without dense ground-motion recording networks in the epicentral area empirical curves will remain highly uncertain. Moreover, the use of aggregated damage observations appears to substantially increase uncertainty in the empirical fragility assessment. In contrast, the use of limited randomly-chosen un-aggregated samples in the affected area can result in good predictions of fragility. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
机译：由数千个建筑物损坏观测数据构成的经验脆弱曲线通常用于地震风险评估，尤其是在欧洲和日本，那里的建筑存量通常很难进行分析建模（例如，古老的砖石结构或木材住宅）。然而，来自不同研究的曲线显示出相当大的差异，这导致评估地震风险的高度不确定性。造成这种分散的一个潜在原因是，几乎普遍忽略了地面运动的空间变异性以及地面运动预测中的认知不确定性。在本文中，使用地面运动场模拟了建筑物损坏的数据库，该场考虑了空间变异性和已知的脆性曲线。然后将这些数据库取反，应用标准方法得出经验脆性曲线，并研究与已知曲线的差异。进行参数分析以研究各种假设对结果的影响。通过这种方法得出的结论是，地震动的可变性会导致脆性曲线更平坦，并且所使用的地震动预测方程中的认识论不确定性可能会对导出的曲线产生巨大影响。如果在震中区域没有密集的地面运动记录网络，经验曲线将仍然非常不确定。此外，使用汇总损伤观察结果似乎大大增加了经验脆弱性评估中​​的不确定性。相反，在受影响的区域中使用有限的随机选择的非聚集样本可以很好地预测脆弱性。 （C）2014作者。由Elsevier Ltd.发布

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